May 21, 2008
The Bizarre Power of Puerto Rico in the Democratic Contest
Kos notes something I was unaware of - Puerto Rico gets to send more delegates to the Democratic National Convention than 26 states (including those Appalachian areas that have been much discussed of late, Kentucky and West Virginia).
He's Not Dead Yet
Just stop it. I'm sure I'm not the first to make this point, but would someone remind the national news that Sen. Kennedy is not dead? All these premature obituaries that are being run are just morbid. He's ill, but he's still an influential guy who has important work to do. Note the prognosis, but there's another time to report on the effects he's had on American political development.
The Future of Lebanonese Politics: A Deal Is Struck
The keys according to the New York Times: Lebanon will finally get a president, but Hezbollah will have veto power over the new government.
One wonders if Israel's peace talks with Syria are tied to this. And will John McCain denounce the Bush administration if they deal with this Hezbollah-influenced government? Will he denounce Israel for dealing with Syria (indirectly)?
May 20, 2008
I Get Cartman's Complaint
So last night I watched several episodes of The Family Guy for the first time in ages. And I've got to say I get what Cartman was arguing in the "Cartoon Wars" episodes of South Park. As The Family Guy developed it has become more dependent on jokes thrown together completely randomly, and it let jokes, many of which were unfunny in the first place, run waaay too long. It's too bad as Brian and Stewie remain funny - but the rest, not so much.
Polling Vice Presidential Prospects
So SUSA has polled Pennsylvania and shows that in a head-to-head Obama leads McCain 48-40. They also polled a variety of tickets involving the two senators. Is this really all that helpful? I mean I don't find it at all surprising that tickets including John Edwards and the governor of Pennsylvania polled better for Obama than tickets featuring Gov. Kathleen Sebelius of Sen. Chuck Hagel, given that I imagine most voters aren't familiar with those two individuals. Name ID seems to really skew such polls. That said, the low numbers for McCain-Romney are kind of interesting given that Romney should be relatively well known after his presidential bid.
Dale Carpenter on the California Marriage Decision
The Volokh Conspiracy's go-to guy on issues tied to same-sex marriage has weighed in on the California Supreme Court's recent marriage decision (here). I am not a lawyer, nor do I play one on tv, but I'd agree that these points appear key (I imagine Ryan and maybe Moon will want to comment on this eventually):
A possible limiting factor on the influence of the California decision is that it arose in the unusual context of a state that had already granted all of the substantive rights of marriage to gay couples under the state's domestic partnership laws. The California court emphasized this point throughout the opinion ...
First, the California court held that the fundamental right to marry includes the right of same-sex couples to marry, just as it concluded in 1948 that the right to marry includes the right of inter-racial couples to marry, not that there is a fundamental right to "inter-racial marriage." Op. at 51. The California court did not hold that there is a new and separate fundamental right to something called "same-sex marriage," a nuance some critics of the decision have missed. This holding is a first for a state high court in marriage litigation. Most of the courts so far have missed the distinction and have assumed that the claim at issue was for recognition of a new fundamental right to same-sex marriage and then, having under-theorized the issue, they've gone on to reject the "new" right ...
The California court concludes that the state’s legislative domestic-partnership enactments have not created a new constitutional right but are a confirmation and official recognition of an underlying truth about the equal needs and capacities of gay couples and families. So even if California had not enacted the domestic partnership laws for same-sex couples, the California court would have concluded under its own logic that they were included within the fundamental right to marry ...
Second, the holding that excluding gay couples from marriage is sexual-orientation discrimination and that such discrimination cannot survive strict scrutiny also does not depend on whether the state previously enacted domestic partnership laws. If the substantive right of marriage, and the dignitary interest in having the relationship called "marriage" by the state, cannot be denied on the basis of sexual orientation it should not matter that the state has left gay families completely without legal protection or has seen fit to protect them in all substantive ways but withheld the title marriage. Indeed, if the state had refused to give gay couples any protection under state law, or had given them only very little protection, the affront to equal protection principles under the court's reasoning would be even greater. The equal protection holding, quite apart from the fundamental-right holding, has potential to influence sister state courts in future marriage litigation.
Of course the Court's decision that sexual-orientation discrimination should be subject to heightened scrutiny might be the most important part of this ruling. But Carpenter doesn't go into that at length, and not being an expert on that I feel unqualified to comment on it.
May 19, 2008
Speaking of Elites Pressuring Students ...
The country's top political donor promised the leaders of Young Democrats of America $1 million if they wouldn't back Sen. Obama. The Young Democrats though stood with their pro-Obama membership and turned down the $1 million. While this race looks over (and has for some time) the Clintons are clearly still fighting hard for every vote.
May 15, 2008
Bresch-Related Things That Make You Go Hmmmm ...
Gov. Joe Manchin's daughter, Heather Bresch, was being considered for at least two posts on advisory boards for West Virginia University about the time her academic credentials came into question. Last fall Bresch was being considered as a potential member of both the WVU Foundation and the advisory board at the College of Business and Economics, indicating WVU officials regarded her as more than just the average ex-student
May 14, 2008
A Game Changer for the November Election?
Marc Ambinder discusses the implications of the ruling California's Supreme Court is going to issue tomorrow relating to that state's anti-gay marriage initiative.
West Virginia Might Be the State That Looks Least Like America
Racially, educationally, in terms of its economy, in terms of the age of its population, it is an outlier. Something that you'd think more people might have brought up on tv last night when interpreting the supposed larger meanings of West Virginia's vote.
"It's Almost Like She's the Al Sharpton of White People"
Seriously, is there anyone on tv who's more perfect for today's political media environment than Chris Matthews? It's like they popped him out of a network talking head machine.
And, more broadly, why won't the networks say poor white people? That's what they kept implying again and again and again last night. But they kept saying "working class" (apparently no one who makes more than 50k works). Is poor a dirty word or something? It doesn't seem any more negative to me than the implication that no one who earns more than $50,000 a year works for a living.
May 13, 2008
For Gov. Chris Gregoire (D-WA) Pork-Barrel Spending Comes Before National Security
The governor of Washington state took time out of her busy schedule today to write a diary on Daily Kos in which she attacks Sen. McCain for leading the fight that allowed for a major air tanker contract to be won by Airbus, not Boeing. Now I understand that she has to do things to appease angry constituents, but discussing the tanker contract as "economic stimulus" seems to kind of miss the point, no? The tankers aren't being built to improve the economies of France or Washington, they are being built to provide a vital service that's key to our national security. I don't think there's much debate that the Airbus plane rated better than the Boeing plane, in terms of our military's needs. So, personally, if she feels the need to attack John McCain I wish she would do it on one of the issues on which he's horrible (there are many) and not on an issue on which he can argue he is more concerned with the national security needs of the country than a Democrat.
"Would You Be Vice President?" - The Hill Asks 97 Senators
And happily some of them actually have a sense of humor (predictably, some don't).
Ted Stevens: "No. I've got too many things that I still want to do as a senator. And I don't like the idea of a job where you sit around and wait for someone to die."
Barbara Mikulski: "Absolutely. Absolutely. I think I would be great. First of all, I know how to behave at weddings and funerals. And I know how to be commander in chief. I'd bring a lot of fun to the job. We would rock the Naval Observatory."
Robert C. Byrd: "No, I can already preside over the Senate, and I do not enjoy spending a lot of time at 'undisclosed locations.'"
Roger Wicker: "The chances of that are so remote that I'm more likely to be hit by an asteroid."
Daniel Inouye: "If I were asked, I would say, 'You're out of your mind.'"
James Inhofe: "No. I enjoy life too much."
Chuck Grassley: "I'm too old to be vice president. But I am young enough to be reelected to the Senate." [So he's going to run again, at 77, in 2010?]
Larry Craig: I would say "No, Hillary.'"
Lamar Alexander: "I know already who it will be: the man in charge of the search. There's no need for me to respond. That's how you get to be vice president."
Mississippi's 1st District
Marc Ambinder is arguing that today's important election isn't in West Virginia, it's in Mississippi. And indeed, if the Democrats manage to win a blood-red seat in the Deep South that President Bush won by 25 points in 2004 that'll be a sign that the Republican brand is pretty much toxic at this point. Though of course Democratic pick-ups in Louisiana and Illinois (former Speaker Hastert's seat) earlier this year are already pointing in that direction.
Robert Rauschenberg Has Died
He was long one of my favorite American artists. The New York Times obituary (with links to a few works) is here.
Rumors of my (computer's) demise
Are true.
While in comparison to the havoc wreaked on others' lives and livelihoods, my loss is small, the storms that passed across the country this weekend were responsible for completely soaking my computer. It was sitting near a window that in ten years living in my house has never once been a problem for rain entering. This storm was something different. When I got home and picked it up it felt heavy, and then when I opened the top I saw droplets of water on the keyboard. I thought, "hmmm, did I just dribble from my glass of water?" not thinking that there was an external source.
The bad news is that the laptop is dead. The good news is that I bought a $20 doohickey that has now converted my (former) hard drive to a (now) external drive, and it appears I have lost no data. So, all the Flaming Lips shows and photos of the Drive By Truckers are safe! However it means my access will be spotty until I get a new computer, as I am working on anyone else's who will share.
So, be back soon, hopefully.
The Dirtiest Side of the Bresch Scandal: Intimidating WVU Students
Miles Layton buried the lead in his story in today's Dominion-Post on the climate of fear that's come to exist at WVU. It's well known that those friendly to the Goodwin/Garrison side of things have been putting pressure on certain faculty, especially at the medical center, to openly side with President Garrison, or at the very least not come out against him. But something else that's also gone on is far more disturbing.
Layton notes, several paragraphs into his story, that students who've wanted to take a stand against the mismanagement of the Garrison administration have come under heavy pressure from other students, especially some associated with student government, not to do so. In fact students who had agreed to serve in the new group that is trying to improve the university's reputation in the wake of the scandal, Mountaineers for Integrity and Responsibility, have been pressured out of joining the organization. As to the students in question, it's no great secret who some of them are - while SGA President Jason Parson has publicly backed Garrison, SGA Vice President Tommy Napier and others have been openly critical of the administration's failings.
What Layton fails to report though is exactly what kind of pressure the pro-Garrison students are putting on the critics of the administration - and why that pressure would be enough to silence, at least a bit, students who've spoken out against the misdeeds of some in the administration. Basically, pro-Garrison/Goodwin students (or at least one of them) have conveyed threats from a prominent member of the Board of Governors, telling these students that they will never have careers in this state unless they shut up. That a member of the Board of Governors is threatening WVU undergrads is horrifying. That a WVU student (who will of course deny it) is happily serving as his hatchet man is equally despicable. That WVU undergrads (who obviously can't speak out about it) find themselves in this position for wanting to improve their university is a sad, sad thing.
[NOTE: Mike Garrison is NOT involved in this intimidation of students. But that one his allies on the Board has engaged in it shows that getting back to business as usual is the last thing this state and university needs.]
May 12, 2008
Mike Garrison Thinks Tenured Faculty Make Around $100,000
Clueless barely begins to describe it. Faculty wanting to voice their frustrations with our clueless monarch are strongly encouraged to come to the special Faculty Assembly being held at 1:30 on Wed. at the Creative Arts Center. I fear turnout is going to be really low (could it possibly be scheduled at a more inconvenient time?), and that would send a bad message.
May 11, 2008
Obama-???
So since earlier today I brought up the question of McCain's running-mate, I figure I might as well open a thread for any thoughts anyone has about who Sen. Obama should choose. My top choices? Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico, Gov. Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas, Sen. Jack Reed of Rhode Island, former Sen. Bob Graham of Florida, retired Gen. Wesley Clark, and to make it an even half-dozen I'll throw Gov. Janet Napolitano of Arizona into the mix (since according to Marc Ambinder Obama likes her a lot). Other names have been suggested of course, but many of them have drawbacks. All three prominent Virginians who are often discussed come with some problems, many of the leading senators voted for the war, and Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland has said he doesn't want it. I think any anti-choice politicians are non-starters, though a few like Sen. Casey of Pennsylvania have some supporters. Any names you like out of that list? Or are there other names that should be thrown into the mix?
Bill Clinton, Still Running on Elitism, Fears and Lies
He was at it again today in Mingo county.
He told them his wife represented "people like you, in places like this", and urged voters to turn out in record numbers on Tuesday to send a message to the "higher-type people" who were trying to force her out of the race.
I wasn't a giant Clinton cheerleader in the 1990s, but any respect I had for the man has been completely erased in this campaign.
Finding the Cabin
"You're certainly not."
I think the most interesting point in Jeff Jensen's recap of this week's (very intriguing) Lost has to do with John and Ben's timelines - how they are related, and how they point to one of them being favored by the island. Now as to which one is really favored, that's not clear yet.
And I'm really not at all clear on what we are supposed to make of Horace's appearance.
Are 10 Republican Senate Seats in Danger?
It might be a little hard to imagine, but as recent polling shows Senators Smith (OR), Cornyn (TX) and Dole (NC) to be in trouble, it's starting to look possible. In contrast, the Republicans are really only contesting 1 Democratic Senate seat at the moment.
Once Again Considering the Question of McCain's Running Mate
So last night Ryan and I were once again talking about who McCain might run with. And I was having trouble thinking of many possibilities. Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota and Gov. Jon Huntsman of Utah seem like good possibilities, as does former Rep. Rob Portman of Ohio. I think former Gov. (and Homeland Security Secretary) Tom Ridge of Pennsylvania should get more attention than he does, and I find the idea that people are advocating Gov. Bobby Jindal (Louisiana) and Gov. Sarah Palin (Alaska) to be bizarre - both are brand new to their jobs, and so young that it might highlight just how old McCain is. I get the argument in favor of Sen. John Thune of South Dakota (he's young, handsome and very conservative), but I don't find him a likely choice for similar reasons. Gov. Charlie Crist of Florida has obviously been hugely helpful to the McCain campaign, but he too is relatively inexperienced. And of course a lot of people are speaking up for Mitt Romney, but I don't get that he adds much to the ticket, and it certainly appeared during the primary campaign that Romney and McCain weren't fond of each other.
So am I leaving anyone off the list? If not, does that make Pawlenty the heavy favorite? Personally, if I was McCain, I'd take Ridge or Huntsman. But he's close to Pawlenty, who's quite conservative, young but not too young, an experienced governor of a "purple" state, and of course the host of this summer's convention.
May 10, 2008
May 09, 2008
Hezbollah Turns Against Fellow Lebanese
Awful news from Beirut.
The battles spread within moments of a rare news conference by the leader of the Shiite Hezbollah movement, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, who effectively endorsed the use of violence by his supporters against fellow Lebanese. This is a first in the history of the group, which had always declared that it is armed only to defend Lebanon against Israeli aggression.
They've already seized control of much of West Beirut. A couple of things to keep an eye on for how they affect the response to this - Hezbollah's leader Nasrallah has become extremely popular in many areas of the Arab world since the 2006 war, so some regional governments may incur domestic costs by taking him on, and Israel may very soon (very soon) be going through a transition in its leadership.
Trauma Mommas
In honor of Mothers Day, "10 Horrifying Moms from Non-Horror Movies". Damn I love some of these characters.
ARG Has Clinton Up 66-23 in West Virginia
And 45% of likely Democratic primary voters in WV say there's no way they'd vote for Obama in the fall.
May 08, 2008
Hillary Clinton Praises Her Support From "White Americans"
I'm a lot less worried about the racial tinge to what she said than the fact that what she said flies in the face of reality. Over time Obama's been becoming more and more popular in those voting blocs that Clinton seems to think matter more than others. I noticed that yesterday as I was looking over exit poll data, prepping for a radio interview. Kos has numbers on the trend here.
Fred Kaplan's Daydream Believers
It's a good book on why US foreign and national security policies have gone off the rails in recent years. The core point seems to be this (p.192):
The great divide in thinking about American foreign policy today is not so much between Realists and Neoconservatives; it's between realists (with a small r) and fantasists. The split lies not in what is desirable over the long run but in what is possible here and now.
In telling the story of the (at least temporary) triumph of the fantastists Kaplan recounts the dangerous influence of Wohlstetter and his followers, Reagan's push for SDI, our bizarre policies relating toward North Korea, Rumsfeld's prioritization of transformation above all, and of course the Bush administration's policies toward the Middle East. It's a disheartening tale, but one filled with valuable and informative detail. And one that's in the end somewhat hopeful. US decision makers may finally be back on the road toward being reality-based.
Prince Caspian
So since I'm feeling sickly this week and can only talk for limited periods (allergies - bad bad allergies) I figured it was a good night to stay in and read Prince Caspian again in preparation for next week's release of the film adaptation. And what I remembered turned out to be true. I think it's the weakest of the Chronicles of Narnia. There's remarkably little from which to base a summer release - much less one whose trailer makes it out to be part IV of The Lord of the Rings. The story's brief, and not much happens. So now I'm actually kind of more interested to see the film than I was earlier because I'm wondering what they'll do to make it interesting.
While I get making the films in order, books 3 and 4 are should make much better movies.
