May 10, 2004

After the White Smoke It Is … Chris John on the Balcony!

Referring again to the theme of the mindless repetition of “conventional wisdom” that pervades American political reporting, I feel the need to knock most of the reports that have introduced the blogsphere to the U.S. Senate race in Louisiana. This is hardly the only race that is being reported in this way, but it is emblematic of the problem. In most reports on this race Rep. Chris John is referred to as the strongest of the Democrats running for the seat (he is being opposed by State Treasurer John Kennedy and a state representative). Now if that’s what these people actually think – fine. But what is exasperating is that most reports on this race give no reason whatsoever for that assessment. When they do find time to write an extra sentence or two for their story they appear to mostly base their opinions on the fact that he resembles (and has the support of) John Breaux.

Now while John Breaux is a political leviathan in Louisiana there are two problems with this type of analysis. First, Louisiana has elected three new senators since the 1940’s. That’s right – three. This is a rather small sample from which to draw any definitive conclusions about what it takes to win a seat in the U.S. Senate. Secondly, it totally sidelines the question of which Democrat would actually be the most effective senator.

Chris John is best known recently for strenuously opposing a proposed ban on cockfighting in Louisiana (all of you who have belittled Senator Frist for his history of cruelty to animals should keep that in mind). Generally, he is seen as a good ole’ boy Breaux clone. And for you good government types out there let me remind you of Breaux’s “my vote can’t be bought but it can be rented” line.

I hope the Democrats in Louisiana rally to State Treasurer John Kennedy instead. He is a politically-savy reformer best known for spear-heading a drive to return money to the people that the state had been holding in various accounts. He has a history of working successfully with a wide variety of constituency groups (he has some strong support in the African-American community and he also served as counsel to former Governor Buddy Roemer, a Republican). Will he run as well as John in Cajun country? Probably not, no. But he’d probably run better in a lot of middle class areas outside the Southwestern corner of the state, and he might run as well or better than John in urban areas.

Just because one electoral coalition worked for one man in the past doesn’t mean that’s the only strategy for a party to win statewide. That's particularly true in a state with powerful influences on voting preferences other than partiy membership. And it would be nice if a candidate’s ideas and achievements actually had something to do with whether they deserved the support of their party.

Posted by armand at May 10, 2004 11:50 AM | TrackBack | Posted to Politics


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