Bloodless Coup

The Kerry-XXXXX ticket

If the reports in the press this month that Kerry has narrowed his vice presidential nominee choices down to 5 (Graham, Gephardt, Edwards, Clark and Vilsack) are accurate, then I don’t think there is a clear front-runner for the vice presidential selection. I will however throw in my two cents and say that out of these five I think Vilsack would be the strongest selection (in terms strengthening the campaign politically). I think the governor of Iowa would be superior to the others in talking about domestic issues. It’s important to remember that those are the issues that typically draw voters to the Democratic party. Yes, foreign policy and national security will be highly salient issues for many voters this year, but millions of others are going to vote on things like education or farm policy. In terms of appealing to voters on those topics I think Vilsack adds the most substance to the ticket. He’s also from a swing region (the Midwest), and he should be very media friendly. You just know that the Barbara Walters clones that make up most of television news will be lining up to do fawning interviews detailing his up-from-the-bootstraps story. And in terms of intangibles I think that in this campaign between millionaires having someone with more of a common-man touch on the ticket to soften certain sides of Kerry’s image could prove crucial. There are a lot of voters out there (including in swing states like OH, WV and AR) who aren’t happy with Bush, but who doubt someone like Kerry can relate to their concerns. I think having a Kerry-Vilsack ticket would be a great help in getting around that problem.

According to press accounts the most likely selection is Gephardt. I would like to go on the record as considering Gephardt to be a horrible choice. There is the matter of his politics being quite malleable over the years. There is the matter of those unfortunate principles he has stuck to (like his string of poor economic policy proposals). There is the fact that he was one of the biggest cheerleaders of the war in Iraq. There is the matter of his tin-ear when it comes to the national political mood (there are many critics of his tenure as Minority Leader). He even failed to mobilize his base in what was practically a race at home in Iowa this spring (stop and think about it and you’ll notice that the scale of his defeat in the caucuses was breathtaking). And in terms of establishing a campaign identity Kerry-Gephardt might as well be Mondale-Ferraro in terms of how easily it could be portrayed as a bunch of liberal, out-of-touch, DC insiders.

I could live with Graham, though I imagine the press wouldn’t react well (I assume they’d call it a craven political move) and he didn’t prove to be a strong campaigner last winter. I could live with Edwards, though I am concerned that Kerry-Edwards could be portrayed as a couple of smug rich white guys. I like Clark a lot. If this selection was made solely on the basis of personal qualities and experience Clark would probably be my favorite of these five. And if Kerry wants to center his campaign on national security, he should pick Clark. Absolutely. But I still think a campaign that stress domestic issues is the way to go. And with that in mind, I think Vilsack would add the most to the ticket (maybe Clark would be willing to serve as Ambassador to Iraq or to the United Nations?).