Bloodless Coup

Tossing Cheney Overboard?

While I realize it’s one of the hot topics of conversation this week, I don’t think it’s likely that Bush is going to dump Cheney from the ticket. There are many reasons why (not just limited to the following). Bush would likely consider it disloyal. It would appear to be caving in to critics of the administration. Given the vice president’s unprecedented power, it is hard to imagine what the Bush administration would look like without Cheney (and it might be unusually complex to dislodge him). The administration has so vociferously shot down the rumor that doing it now would require a lot of explaining. And who would he be replaced with? There really aren’t any obvious candidates that don’t raise one or more serious problems. While I think he should dump him (for both policy and electoral reasons), I just don’t see it happening.

One of the principal problems with this scenario is the question of a replacement. Yes, if Bush would be willing to ask McCain or Powell, and one of them was willing to say yes, he should do that immediately. That action would likely seriously improve the president’s electoral prospects. Nonetheless, given the frosty relations within that set, it’s a very unlikely move. I don’t think any of the other popular names that are bandied about would really increase the president’s vote total that much. In particular, Giuliani and Rice might raise as many problems as they would solve.

Finally there’s the problem of ’08. Does the president really want to name someone who will instantly take precedence in that race? There’s a very long list of would-be presidents on the Republican side of the aisle: Governors Romney, Bush and Owens; Senators Hagel, Kyl, Santorum, Brownback, and Allen; General Ashcroft; Secretary Ridge. And that’s just a partial list. Does the president really want to get involved in that fight? If he doesn’t, he has to pick someone who has the experience, image and drive to be a respected nominee, but presumably wouldn’t want to run a campaign for the top office in the land. That makes the pool of possible candidates exceedingly small. Jack Danforth would make the most sense to me. I think replacing Cheney with the current US ambassador to the UN (a former 3-term senator from Missouri) would definitely help Bush in November. But beyond that name, who is there? Maybe Elizabeth Dole? Some capable, veteran, but low-profile member of Congress? Frank Wolf?

Considering all that, I expect Cheney to be on the ticket, even though it’s probably not in the president’s best interest.