In case you didn't realize it, Louisiana is going to be the home of several key congressional elections this fall. With Senator Breaux and Congressmen Vitter, Tauzin and John retiring, practically half of its delegation in DC will be new to their jobs next January. The hottest races are likely to be the Senate contest and the races for Tauzin and John's seats. The latest numbers from Verne Kennedy's Market Research Institute:
U.S. Senate Race U.S. Rep. David Vitter (R) 36% State Treasurer John Kennedy (D) 19% U.S. Rep. Chris John (D) 18% State Rep. Arthur Morrell (D) 6% Undecided 21%
Third Congressional District Race Billy Tauzin III (R) 42% Charlie Melancon (D) 14% Craig Romero (R) 9% Charmaine Caccioppi (D) 7% Damon Baldon (D) 6%
Seventh Congressional District Race Willie Mount (D) 30% Don Cravins (D) 28% David Thibodaux (R) 22% Charles Boustany (R) 7%
I expect that the 7th will stay in Democratic hands (with State Sen. Willie Mount becoming the first woman to represent Louisiana in the US House in several years), but the 3rd, currently held by the GOP, could go either way. Tauzin is running strong on his father's name and lots of dollars. And in the end that may be enough, but I really think that seat could be picked up by the Democrats. As to the Senate race, the Democrats must be extremely careful. I think Vitter is the strongest Senate candidate the Republicans have ever run, and he might very well become the first Republican Senator from Louisiana since the 19th century. I think John Kennedy would be the stronger candidate against him, but that view seems to be a minoirty opinion. In any event, given Louisiana politics, that primary could be a barn-burner all the way until November 2.
Posted by armand at July 23, 2004 07:43 PM | TrackBack | Posted to Politics