Bloodless Coup

A Key Endorsement in the Louisiana Senate Race

The Senate race in Louisiana is not getting much attention at the moment, and that's perfectly understandable since it's likely not going to be decided until a December run-off between Republican Congressman David Vitter and a Democrat to be named in November primary (yes, Vitter could win the seat in November if he gets over 50% of the vote, but most observors doubt that will happen). Still, it's likely to be one of the closest races in the country (as all the Senate races in Louisiana not involving John Breaux have been lately), and it's certainly plausible that the projected December run-off will decide which party controls in the US Senate next January. Those factors mean that it should be near the top of the list of key races this fall.

Most observors seem to think Congressman John (D) will defeat Congressman Vitter (R) in a December run-off. I think that's rather unlikely for a few reasons, most prominent among them being that I think Vitter is a much more appealing candidate than the Republicans put up in 2002 (and even that dog of a candidate almost beat incumbent Senator Mary Landrieu), the December race will likely see lower turnout than the Novembr election (and we all know which party tends to benefit from low turnout in Louisiana), and I do not consider John to be as appealing as Breaux. Lots of people who look at the state see similarities between the two, and there are some - Breaux's endorsed John, John holds Breaux's old House seat, John is, like Breaux, on the right-wing of the Democratic party in Congress (for example John is pro-gun and anti-gay). But I remain unconvinced that John has a similar level of political charm, and of course he doesn't have Breaux's long record of bringing home all sorts of goodies to Louisiana. I have felt from the start that State Treasurer John Kennedy should be the Democratic nominee for this seat (I understand the appeal of State Rep. Arthur Morrell who is also running, but Morrell is far more liberal than John and Kennedy, plus he's black - and I don't think he has a serious chance to be elected), and I'm pleased to see that Kennedy has won the backing of Congressman Bill Jefferson (the lone Democray in Louisiana's US House delegation other than John). Endorsements don't always mean a great deal - but this one should strengthen Kennedy's campaign in New Orleans.

Of course Vitter will be very difficult to defeat irrespective of whom the Democratic candidate is.