"Shiite and Kurdish militias, often operating as part of Iraqi government security forces, have carried out a wave of abductions, assassinations and other acts of intimidation, consolidating their control over territory across northern and southern Iraq and deepening the country's divide along ethnic and sectarian lines, according to political leaders, families of the victims, human rights activists and Iraqi officials."
"While Iraqi representatives wrangle over the drafting of a constitution in Baghdad, the militias, and the Shiite and Kurdish parties that control them, are creating their own institutions of authority, unaccountable to elected governments, the activists and officials said ..."
"I don't see any difference between Saddam and the way the Kurds are running things here," said Nahrain Toma, who heads a human rights organization, Bethnahrain, which has offices in northern Iraq and has faced several death threats. Toma said the tactics were eroding what remained of U.S. credibility as the militias operate under what many Iraqis view as the blessing of American and British forces. "Nobody wants anything to do with the Americans anymore," she said. "Why? Because they gave the power to the Kurds and to the Shiites. No one else has any rights."
If you are even remotely interested in Iraq, this article is a must-read. Hilzoy has a terrific post up on how we got ourselves into this mess.
Posted by armand at August 21, 2005 01:54 PM | TrackBack | Posted to International AffairsI saw the same article. Really chilling, especially the sections about Kurdish militias moving prisoners to Kurdish prisons (where some have disappeared). This article implies that civil war is closer, perhaps, than we realize. That clearly counts as failure, by my definition, and most other people's as well.
I'm not sure how to head this off, other than just let the Kurds go and let the Shiites take out whatever pent up frustration/hatred they have out on the Sunnis for a few decades. Not a pretty picture, but it might be reasonably stable.
Posted by: baltar at August 21, 2005 03:32 PM | PERMALINKI don't think that would be very stable. Letting the Shiites run rampant would seem likely to strengthen Sunni terror groups like al Qaeda, and letting the Kurds go ... wow, that could go wrong in many, many ways.
Posted by: Armand at August 21, 2005 03:40 PM | PERMALINKSure it could, but if the overriding goal is long-term stability (just my assumption; not one you have to buy into), what other alternatives are there?
If you let the Shiites beat on the Sunni insurgency for a while (with US help), could they achieve stability?
Posted by: baltar at August 21, 2005 03:55 PM | PERMALINKWasn't there something recently about Iran not releasing reports on violence in the Kurdish region of Iran? I also disagree with letting the Kurds go. In an emotional, nationalist sense, there is an appeal to it. But practically, when you think what it could trigger in Iran and Turkey... the potential for disaster is huge.
Posted by: binky at August 21, 2005 03:56 PM | PERMALINKI don't disagree with that either, but is violence in Turkish/Iranian Kurdish areas worse than continued violence/civil war in Iraq?
I think we're at the point where we need to choose a "least bad" option, not a optimal solution.
Posted by: baltar at August 21, 2005 04:12 PM | PERMALINKSure, because then you have three fucked up countries, not just one. Ok, wait, maybe fucked up is the wrong way to describe it, but I don't think that would calm Iraq, and I sure do think it would add to regional instability. As in magnify, not reduce, the problem.
Posted by: binky at August 21, 2005 04:46 PM | PERMALINKGiven the early reporting on the new constitution - I think we are f&*ked. The only way to really stabilize the place that I see involves troop commitments that we simply aren't going to make under our supposedly tough guy president. And given the massive degree to which he's mismanaged this thing so far ... ugh. This is just all so much bad news. I don't know ... more and more it strikes me that pulling out is the best of some very bad options.
Posted by: Armand at August 22, 2005 11:55 AM | PERMALINK