March 16, 2006

Abortion Statistics

Via this Lawyers, Guns, and Money post, I found the comments by the Missouri Republican Party interesting:

An attempt to resume state spending on birth control got shot down Wednesday by House members who argued it would have amounted to an endorsement of promiscuous lifestyles.
Missouri stopped providing money for family planning and certain women's health services when Republicans gained control of both chambers of the Legislature in 2003.
[...]
The House voted 96-59 to delete the funding for contraception and infertility treatments after Rep. Susan Phillips told lawmakers that anti-abortion groups such as Missouri Right to Life were opposed to the spending.
"If you hand out contraception to single women, we're saying promiscuity is OK as a state, and I am not in support of that," Phillips, R-Kansas City, said in an interview.
Others, including some lawmakers who described themselves as "pro-life," said it was illogical for anti-abortion lawmakers to deny money for contraception to low-income people who use public health clinics.
"It's going to have the opposite effect of what the intention is, which will be more unwanted pregnancies and more abortions," said Rep. Kate Meiners, D-Kansas City.

In other words, the pro-life/anti-abortion crowd in Missouri (and, implicitly, nationwide) is not only anti-abortion, but anti-contraception, anti-education, anti-choice, and anti-women. Given a choice between spending a little money to further contraception (and, hence, reduce abortions) or spending less money (and reducing the availability of contraception, and thus increasing abortions), the Missouri Republican Party choose to spend less.

Moreover, they did so explicitly by arguing that, morally, supporting contraception supports "promiscuity" (which is assumed to be bad). This goes far beyond the "traditional" pro-life stance, and argues for a much larger (and significantly more invasive of people's personal lives) moral code.

This got me thinking. Is it true that unmarried women are more promiscious? Who has abortions?

The Guttmacher Institute (note: the institute is affiliated with some pro-choice organizations - I don't think this distorts their statistics, but I'm disclosing fully here) has some data on this. They indicate that of all abortions, 67% are to unmarried women, about 16% to divorced/widowed women, and 16% to married women. However, those three groups of women are not equal in the overall US population. There are significantly more married women than unmarried women (in fact, according to the Census about 60% of all women (over 18) are married, about 20% are unmarried, and another 20% are divorced/widowed). Thus, the percentages above are somewhat inaccurate. What is more interesting are the rates of abortion (per 1000 women) for each group:

Married women had a rate of eight abortions per 1,000 in 2000, while rates for previously married and never-married women were much higher—29 and 35 per 1,000, respectively. Between 1994 and 2000, abortion rates declined by 11-14% for women in all three marital-status groups, continuing a decline that started in the late 1980s. The abortion rates of women in the different marital-status groups are influenced by age, which differs sharply by subgroup. Estimates of age-standardized abortion rates by marital status (not shown) revealed that if women in each marital-status group had the same age distribution as all women aged 15-44, the highest abortion rate would be among previously married rather than never-married women (50 vs. 30 per 1,000); married women would still have the lowest rate (11 per 1,000)[italics mine].

What the italicized portion of the quote argues is that, while different groups have abortions at different rates, age is also a prime influence on abortion (younger people have abortions at a much higher rate than older). Thus, looking at the rates of abortion for each group is still not sufficient: you need to adjust for the relative differences in age for each group (unmarried people tend to be younger than divorced people, for example). Once you do that, the age-adjusted abortion rates for social groups are finally clear: 11 per 1000 married women, 30 per 1000 never-married women, 50 per 1000 divorced women.

This is a surprise (or, at least it was to me): previously-married (I guess that means divorced? It would include widowed, however.) women are about five times more likely to have abortions than married women (of the same age), while never-married women are only three times more likely than married women (of the same age).

So, do contraception programs promote promiscuity? (This ignores the question of whether the government should have any say in promiscuity questions; I'm a reformed libertarian, so my answer is an emphatic "no".) The Missouri Republicans never asked. They assumed the answer. If one wanted to use the government to tinker with societal morals (about an evil an idea as I could think of), the statistics argue that one should promote marriage and discourage divorce to reduce abortions. While unmarried women are more likely to get abortions than married women, "previously married" women are significantly more likely (assuming equal ages) than either of the other two groups. Discouraging divorce will reduce abortion. That, however, seems basically absent from any Right-Wing social program I've heard about recently (not saying it isn't there, just saying it isn't a significant part of their proposals).

Actions like the Missouri vote, and the stance by the Missouri Republicans, argue more and more that the "pro-life" movement isn't (in fact) anti-abortion, but anti-women (they would like to see women make the "correct" choices with respect to sexual and social decisions; reducing abortion is one consequence of that). This isn't "new" news (binky has been complaing about this and linking to numerous stories), but does showcase the dangers of the "left" trying to co-opt this issue by having a more strident moral tone. It seems clear that, even if all the democrats together chide enough women and succeed in reducing the abortion rate, that will not be sufficient to "win" the culture wars - the abortion issue is only the tip of the iceberg for the social conservatives out there. A successful abortion-reduction program (of whatever variety) isn't a "win" for the right, as they want not only less abortions, but less abortions through "correct" moral and social choices. As the Missouri vote shows, merely reducing abortion isn't the goal. Moreover, as the Missouri vote shows, if they can't reduce abortions they way they want, they'll take their ball home and not play. This is not a mindset that allows compromise, and the quicker the Democrats learn to avoid their game, the quicker they can "win" this issue (a majority of Americans favor some form of legal abortion; I imagine an even higher majority favor divorce laws) and succeed in blunting the Republican sweeps of the "red" states.

Hey, even if all this was spitting into the wind, the abortion statistics were interesting.

Posted by baltar at March 16, 2006 12:23 PM | TrackBack | Posted to Culture | El Infierno de kansas | Gender and Politics | Liberty | Politics | Reproductive Autonomy


Comments

In other words, the pro-life/anti-abortion crowd in Missouri (and, implicitly, nationwide) is not only anti-abortion, but anti-contraception, anti-education, anti-choice, and anti-women.

I think they're actually anti-sex, or at least opposed to non-procreative sex (and, presumably, to any procreative sex that happens outside of a relationship lacking the formal blessings of the organized representatives of their imaginary friend). The other things just kinda flow from there, and from their resentments against women for being all tempting and shit.

Posted by: jacflash at March 16, 2006 03:21 PM | PERMALINK

This is interesting, in a comparative sort of way. Are there people out there who believe that sex is only for the purposes of bearing children, and if so are they opposed to sex at times of the month when that's less likely to occur? These are the kinds of issues that are going to begin to crop up in more conservative states. I do find it interesting that so many who claim to be religious would allow any sex when Christ says in the New Testament that the best thing is for a person to be essentially married to God, and it's only if they can't hack that, then they should get married. There's nothing like shooting for the consolation prize.

Posted by: Morris at March 16, 2006 04:21 PM | PERMALINK

Actually, we're seeing the influence of Catholicism here, as most fundagelicals are not anti-contraception. And Morris, yes, Catholics who buy into the Natural Family Planning (NFP) method _are_ opposed to sex during particular times of the month.

It's also worth noting that there is a movement within the Roman to soften the regulations against contraceptives, especially as a method for dealing for the AIDS crisis in Africa.

Posted by: bmj at March 16, 2006 05:02 PM | PERMALINK

Most, but not all. A close friend's sister married into one of the no hair cutting no pants for women home school etc etc sects, and well into her 40s was having repeat miscarriages (after something like 9 kids?) because as long as it was god's will she'd keep getting pregnant, and contraception or tubal ligation to help stave off chronic anemia and the permanent destruction of whatever internal organs she had left would have been against god's will (not to mention the husband's).

That situation was a real eyeopener.

Posted by: binky at March 16, 2006 05:11 PM | PERMALINK

Good point, but those protestants are likely heavily influenced by Catholic practices. Most folks like that have come to NFP decision themselves, not through a prescription from their particular denomination (if, in fact, they have one--"home churchers" often end up mimicing Roman practices, which is ironic since they are so far away from the Catholic tradition).

Posted by: bmj at March 16, 2006 06:53 PM | PERMALINK

Morris, don't take Matthew 19:11-12 (1Jesus replied, "Not everyone can accept this word, but only those to whom it has been given. 12For some are eunuchs because they were born that way; others were made that way by men; and others have renounced marriage[c]because of the kingdom of heaven. The one who can accept this should accept it.") out of context. Christ had this to say a few verses earlier:

4"Haven't you read," he replied, "that at the beginning the Creator 'made them male and female,'[a] 5and said, 'For this reason a man will leave his father and mother and be united to his wife, and the two will become one flesh'[b]? 6So they are no longer two, but one. Therefore what God has joined together, let man not separate."

Marriage is not a consolation prize--Jesus hints in verse 11 that God calls people specifically to not marry, and therefore it is not for everyone, just as God calls others to marry (hence the "what God has joined together, let man not separate").

Posted by: bmj at March 16, 2006 07:02 PM | PERMALINK

" heavily influenced by Catholic practices"

Which is funny, given that their perception of present day catholics is probably not so rosy.

Posted by: binky at March 17, 2006 10:03 AM | PERMALINK

The question of how close to "biblical" practices/ideologies the present evangelical movement is the topic for a whole 'nother post (or seven). I was brought up a Christian; went to Sunday school for many years, and have many years of bible studies in me (though they were many years ago). I don't remember learning anything about abortion (or condemnation thereof) or homosexuality (or condemnation thereof) or immorality (it was bad; it was never fully defined).

Thus, from my own point of view, I don't see today's evangelical movement (and the public leaders; Dobson, etc.) as being particularly "Christian" in their values or policy prescriptions. In other words, they talk about religion a great deal, but don't seem to really understand it.

It should be noted that not all Christians are evangelicals, and not all Christian are as nutty as Dobson (link). I've mentioned this before.

Posted by: baltar at March 17, 2006 10:44 AM | PERMALINK

Baltar,
I think they do understand religion. Religion is an organization based upon a system of beliefs. What happens with all organizations no matter how wise their founders is that the ones who follow tend to be less wise. Sometimes they twist the beliefs out of honest misunderstanding, other times out of personal interest. The teachings of Jesus himself (and thankyou for your response BMJ, though I was kidding about that) are different once they're filtered through Paul, and then the early saints, and then the councils of Nicea. What was so remarkable about Christ's life was compassion for everyone, "Prince of Peace embraced the gloom and walked the night alone" as Led Zepplin would say it. But most people can't get their heads around that idea, so they fall back into dualism, into one idea being more important than another (like that quote from everybody's wedding about hope, faith, and love, and the greatest of these is love, when if that were true there would be equal love for faith and hope as there is for love), so we get a thousand different Christian belief systems. This is what religion looks like, very different from the teachings of Christ or Buddha. It's nearly impossible to maintain an organization without this kind of dualism, because why should someone spend their time serving the Church when they could be serving their boss or their family unless that which the organization represents is more important? This also goes along with doing what Jesus would do rather than listening to your own gut or your own heart. It places Jesus above the rest of us when someone full of ultimate compassion would understand that we all have value, and there's no truly compassionate way to lift up what Jesus would do if in so doing it would deny the value of what Baltar would do.

Posted by: Morris at March 17, 2006 11:34 AM | PERMALINK

Morris,

I'm not sure I disagree with you (though the end of your paragraph gets a bit murky), though I guess my central point is that the modern evangelical movement seems to have moved very far away from the biblical teachings (as I interpret them). I certainly understand that as time goes on and people "interpret" the teachings of the founding figure/figures, this moves the religion somewhat away from it's original position; however, that's not what I'm seeing in modern US evangelicalism. They seem to be quite far from the message of love that Jesus preached.

I can find sociological, culture, political and even economic reasons for that shift, but I can't find religious reasons. That disturbs me.

Posted by: baltar at March 17, 2006 12:25 PM | PERMALINK

Baltar, the answer is (of course) that the religion is bent to fit the rest as circumstances require. Do you know that it is now a tenet in some evangelical churches that it's good to be wealthy, as wealth is a sign of God's favor and means you're living correctly? It's a big big BIG leap from Jesus's message, which is an almost Eastern-flavored divest-yourself-of-worldly-attachments-and-know-God sort of thing, even after two centuries of Church filtration. But whether you think of "Christianity" as a corrupt organization or as an evolving organism, the mutation makes some sense.

This sort of remaking of Christianity isn't new, either, though it's newly prominent. I wish I knew more about the various "revivals" that went on in the late 1800s; some of the roots of the modern evangelical movement are there but I don't know enough to meaningfully point them out. It is mostly an American thing, though. Why?

Posted by: jacflash at March 17, 2006 01:18 PM | PERMALINK

jacflash,

I'll agree that religion is (almost always) bent away from the "original" teachings: the more interesting questions are how is it bent, why is it bent, and who bends it? Look at Constantine (Roman Emporer, 300 AD), who used Christianity (a new religion at the time, with few established norms, since it had been persecuted by the Roman Empire for most of the 300 years) as a tool to help him establish greater control over his own empire (he may or may not have been a devout convert to Christianity; whether he was or not is morely irrelevant to the political aspects of his conversion).

Thus, if modern "US" evangelicalism is far from "christianity" (whatever that is), why is it, how did it get there, and who took it there (for what purpose)? That's the unknown.

Posted by: baltar at March 17, 2006 02:05 PM | PERMALINK

Have I told you about my desire to make Matthew 19 bumper stickers, and helpfully place them on behemoth SUVs adorned with an abundance of Christian accoutrement?

"It is easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle than for someone rich to enter the kingdom of Heaven." (Matthew 19:24)

Back to Baltar's point, though, I think both of us find the political manifestations of Christianity - as well as the related polarization of the faith - to be a far cry from the teachings we were brought up with. I think many people would blame moderates and liberals who have distanced themselves from the church as the cause of the radicalization, but in my personal experience I see it more as an effect.

Of course, generation may play a big role. We were age of aquarious let the sunshine happy hippy children of jesus (or, as wee tykes this is the christianity we were exposed to). As Baltar says, the Jesus of love and acceptance, the NT Jesus, not the Old Books Christianity of Leviticus.

Posted by: binky at March 17, 2006 02:10 PM | PERMALINK

Baltar, I think you weren't around for the Council of Nicaea sidebar we had a couple of weeks back, but, um, yeah re the Holy Romans. And I think the answer to the "why" is that "Christianity" is simply an organism that is adapting to local hosts and responding to outside forces, particuarly some peculiarly American cultural forces. Which ones? I dunno offhand, though I suspect we could find our way to some fairly solid guesses. (Come visit me; we'll drink Belgian ale and work on it.) I'm also quite sure we wouldn't be the first to venture down that road, though most of the work there is done by Xtians and thus a bit suspect.

Posted by: jacflash at March 17, 2006 02:34 PM | PERMALINK

I'm not sure I disagree with you (though the end of your paragraph gets a bit murky), though I guess my central point is that the modern evangelical movement seems to have moved very far away from the biblical teachings (as I interpret them).

This is due, in part at least, to the lack of any sort of theological tradition within evangelical churches. Many, many churches have tried so hard to divest themselves of any "Catholic" tradition that they are constantly remaking themselves or approaching theology as a salad bar. Without strong leadership (like the papacy, or the synods of the magisterial Presbyterian churches), no one can tell them they're wrong. Theology becomes what ever feels good, even if it can't be justified biblically. One of the worst offenders these days is the "emergent" church, which picks at traditions willy-nilly whilst trying to formulate a "post-modern/post-christian" theology (whatever that is). In the end, it just comes off as a marketing ploy. Your average evangelical church does no better, as jacflash points out--their theology lacks any cohesion.

That said, there are churches trying to live authenticate Christian lives, fueled by a full reading of scripture and a deep knowledge of the great theological/intellectual tradition of the Church. The best examples are Catholics who fall in line behind Dorothy Day (and the Catholic Worker movement) and Ivan Illich--superficially these people are still conservatives (though likely big C conservatives, rather than contemporary Republicans), but their faith often takes them in other, rather non-conservative directions (both Day and Illich were committed anarchists). Protestants have also tapped into this tradition, lead by (among others) Jacques Ellul and Stanley Hauerwas. Of course, many in these traditions get labeled as leftists and Marxists, and are largely ignored (if you'd like to see this in action, check out the Crunchy Con blog on the National Review site. Rod Dreher has attempted to outline a traditionalist conservatism founded, in part, on this sort of theology, and the neo-cons there (even the Christians) just don't get it). It is worth noting that these traditions often choose to operate under the radar, as it were, and they eschew politics as a means to an end. They seek to do Christ's work not by telling people what to do, but by living a life of compassion for others, especially those in their family, church, and community.

Posted by: bmj at March 17, 2006 02:42 PM | PERMALINK

I'll buy all of this (by all the commentors), but I'll ask a related question: we seem to see more fundamentalism in America than in other (i.e., European) versions of Christianity. Is this because of a sort-of-latent-but-not-really anti-intellectualism inherent in America? If modern Evangelicalism lacks "theological tradition" (as bmj) said), well, theology isn't easy - it takes study and thinking and writing and arguing and study again. That's an intellectual pursuit. Americans don't like intellectuals, thus, no theology.

Posted by: baltar at March 17, 2006 03:06 PM | PERMALINK

Baltar,
Don't forget Americans are also heavily invested in a culture of political independence. And this "Don't you tell me what to do" attitude will have religious consequences regarding energizing a new evangelical church to move away from more traditional theological approaches, even if they claim to embrace the same roots (the message ends up being "You got it wrong, and you're going to Hell, Hell, Hell"). Ever forward!

Posted by: Morris at March 17, 2006 03:25 PM | PERMALINK

I'm not claiming a point (I was asking a question), but a culture of independence does not preclude a quasi-intellectual (or fully intellectual) theology: it just means a bunch of people arguing about what the theology means; I don't even think we have that, in America.

Posted by: baltar at March 17, 2006 03:32 PM | PERMALINK

OK, various and sundry points, Morris first. I'm curious about the relationship between the "American" tradition you describbe, and its tie to the germanic roots of our protestant history. Are you saying the us political reality reinforced the individualism of the reformation, or that it trumps it?

As to Catholic workers, these are the ones the Bush administration is targeting as terror suspects, because they advocate a quasi-communistic way of life. [of course, it makes you want to thump them in the head with a 2x4 and say "Right! Just like Jesus and the Apostles, assholes!" but that wouldn't be very nice, I suppose]. I've long thought that in terms of what I grew up with as "ideal" Christianity, the Sisters of Mercy (and such) got a lot more "right" than most other branches and demoninations: human rights, care for the poor, etc etc. More of that gentle jesus crap that doesn't gel with muscular christianity.

Which brings me to another point, that our (referencing mine and baltar's, and perhaps jacflash - did you guys go to the same church? - too) jesus is way too femmy for the agressive patriarchal lot. I don't think it's a coincidence.

I still have a hard time with the Catholic influence thing. One of the first bricks in my path away from the church was the sharp distinction (negative) between us and everyone else (the heathens). Everyone else included Jews, catholics and Orthodox (muslims or hindus? never even heard of them, and they were probably in the pagans and heathen category for real). I'll never forget going to the greek festival at the orthodox church in my hometown, and asking about why their cross was different, and learning that they weren't going to heaven like Christians. They could be good people like the Jews, but the orthodox and the catholics - who had the added problem of being idol worshippers [if only Stalin were here for this discussion...alas, he hasn't been around in awhile] - but they weren't going to heaven. Years later while on a plane to Brazil, the cute teenage boy going home to visit relatives sitting next to me started chatting up the cute teenage girl sitting in front of us. Turns out she was going to brazil with a religious group. The boy was wearing a cross, as was the girl. Being part brazilian, he knew that Brazil was like 95% catholic. So, continuing the friendly flirting, he said, "oh, you guys must be catholic too!" And the blond girl looked at him like he just farted and said, "oh no, we're christian"

On a final note, please, before I pop an aneurysm, unless you are talking about "all the way from Inuit country to Tierra de Fuego" please stop saying America.

UPDATE: more fuel for the fire to come!

Posted by: binky at March 17, 2006 03:58 PM | PERMALINK

Binky:

The patriarchal lot wouldn't recognize "my" Jesus, who is much more like a Taoist sage reframing his ideas for a Jewish audience than a Son of God(TM). See my comments on Nicaea, etc., but this is really a discussion for another day.

Baltar:

Anti-intellectual? Or a more empowered (vs. Europe) not-quite-intellectual class that is driving this stuff? We have (and have had for a hundred years or more) a broad swath of people who aren't quite intellectuals in the European mold but who still have a (public school) education, access to means of communication, no cultural tradition of deferring to elites (rather the reverse), etc.

Posted by: jacflash at March 17, 2006 04:29 PM | PERMALINK

Most people will call a Day a leftist/Marxist/anarchist, but it's important to remember that at the same time, she was a committed tradtionalist. Day on the sexual revolution:

"This whole crowd goes to extremes in sex and drugs .... Also it is a complete rebellion against authority, natural and supernatural, even against the body and its needs, its natural functions of child bearing."

Day and Illich are best known for their compassion, but it's important to note that they also agreed with the Church's position on marriage and the family.

Posted by: bmj at March 17, 2006 04:59 PM | PERMALINK
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