Bloodless Coup

equivocal denials to the contrary, and notwithstanding frank rich's surprisingly bleak view of things, i think it's gore, and this time he's a winner. there are no second acts in politics, i know, but i think that's because most politicians are too stubborn to really learn from their mistakes. rich's point, yesterday, seemed to be that gore hasn't learned from his, but he fastened on a few things and disregarded one big one: the rousing, brilliant, and astonishingly pointed speeches gore has been delivering since 9/11.

the point being, the mistakes gore needs to learn from aren't really his, per se, the sorts of things he might (like other doomed candidates) be stubborn about, but rather they were the party's, and more broadly the party's way of maladapting to the contemporary electoral landscape.

i think gore's going to show mccain what straight talk is really about, occupy dean's spot with the net roots, and prove handily that he's the only true statesman on the presidential landscape in 2008.

he's going to hand hillary her ass in the primaries, and then he's going to shellack newt gingrich in '08. actually, no -- if i'm right about my other darkhorse, gingrich, the election's going to be frighteningly close, as the moderate right will have someone to vote for without misgivings, but if it's gore against mccain!? forget about it. gore all the way.

and you'll recall, i've been saying this for nearly a year, long before i had even heard of the movie. gore's been speaking brilliantly for quite a while now. i think that still matters, and not just to the northeastern elite, but to everyone. people have forgotten what it's like to be spoken to like adults. they'll find it refreshing.

and yes, i'm going to feel really silly if '08 looks like '00 all over again, but here's hoping . . . .

The "Right" is seriously deluded if they believe Hillary will be the Democratic nominee in 2008.

Gore 2008!

Seems like there's a big movement to squash her chances all of a sudden -- just as Gore has something not unlike a campaign film hitting theaters. I agree with Moon that Gore is the presumptive nominee as of this moment, assuming he wants to be. I also think he's a slam-dunk against anyone but McCain. (He might well beat McCain, too, but it would be less of a sure thing. On the other hand, maybe the hard-right stays home in a McCain vs. Gore contest. I dunno.)

Newt? Intriguing, but I can't see it. He's got too many skeletons in the closet.

I don't know that the anti-Hillary feeling among the Dems is a new thing. Outside of FoxNews and a few of the oldest and most true-believing, old-school Clintonistas I've never heard that many plugged-in people extoll her virtues as a presidential candidate. Now she's #1 in the polls, but polls at this stage are a tough thing to weight because they are all about name ID (and who, other than Virginians and bloggers, has heard of Mark Warner?), and everyone knows her. But apparently she has some fans among the masses of people. Still among DC operative and the netroots types (the groups who along with the money people seem the best groups to look to see who can inspire and maintain nationwide support), she's not widely supported.

I guess all this is hard to judge until we know if 1) Gore is running (though he's made no moves in that direction in terms of rounding up staff) and 2) the exact nature of the 2008 primary schedule. But since the latter is going to be terribly front-loaded, and at this point the former looks like less than a 50/50 proposition - who could stop her? I think it obviously depends to a degree on the times (what the key national issues are), but displacing her will be tough, even if she's not all that popular with a lot of the traditional players in national campaign circles.

All that said, yeah, if Gore runs I also think he'll beat her. Can anyone else?

I think Gore has unique appeal here -- the rabid base would love him, his mainstream rehabilitation (to the extent he needs one) is well under way, and he offers the disgruntled center something like a second chance at the 2000 election. That last factor is absolutely huge for him.

Is there anyone else? I still say Edwards is unlikely to prevail, but if the cards fell right he might beat HRC. Kerry is hopeless. Can Obama pull together the gravitas and appearance of seasoning in time? I doubt it, but defining moments happen. Feingold is at most a VP pick. The dynamic shifts if both HRC and Gore sit out, of course, but assuming that doesn't happen, who else is there?

To me the real players other than HRC and Gore are Bayh (money, money, money & so very moderate), Warner (ditto), Edwards (he can be the best with words out of the whole bunch, and the focus of his campaign will play very well with the base, and possible pull in FDR, Reagan, Nascar types) and Clark if there is a clear need for a military record in late '07 - but that can't happen too late or Clark will have the exact same problem that killed his campaign from the start in '04. I can't fathom Kerry having any shot. The netroots loves Feingold, but, ummm, that's not happening. Richardson? Nope - he's better on paper. Biden and Dodd? It is to laugh. Obama would have a shot, and he can likely enter the race later than anyone else - but there are few signs he will - yet.

So I guess I'd say the most plausible possibilities are Bayh, Warner, Edwards, and HRC, with (depending on events and who does/doesn't run) Gore, Clark and Obama being possible too, with Bayh and Clark being the longest shots out of those 7.

Hillary or Gore, if the Democratic nominee isn't able to pull an overwhelming majority in 2008, we are screwed with those Diebold (Republican) electronic voting machines. I'm convinced those machines give a close election to the Republican candidate.

First visit to this blog; looks interesting. Just wanted to pile on: Between HRC glomming on to the "issue" of flag-burning, and cozying up to Rupert Murdoch, she's made herself absolutely toxic to card-carrying Dems. She'll never come close to the nomination.

Nice to know you find it interesting, sglover. I spent a big chunk of today with my Gore connection - after which I've got to say I'm definitely in agreement with the idea that if he ran he'd likely be the nominee. But will he run? There's little pointing that way - yet. But his turn on This Week Sunday morning is his first turn on one of those Sunday shows in years - maybe that'll give us a clue.

that he's appearing at all (for the first time in years) is all the clue you'll need. there's no need to announce now. visibility is everything. i'm pissed that i've got a bike ride at 10AM; i'd like to see him. seeing as he's The One, and all, at least for me. :-)