May 30, 2006

And Will It Be McCain for the Republicans in '08?

OK, so even though the cable news channels often discuss '08 as if Hillary vs. McCain is the race we're almost certain to see, some of you have doubts about Hillary being the Democratic nominee (well at least if Gore runs). Do you have similar doubts about McCain, or is his front-runner status on firmer ground?

Posted by armand at May 30, 2006 06:23 PM | TrackBack | Posted to Politics


Comments

I think -- again, as of today, with tomorrow being a new day and all that -- that the nomination is presently McCain's to lose. I think the possibility of a surprise is quite a bit greater here than it is on the other side, though. The GOP base just doesn't love him.

Posted by: jacflash at May 30, 2006 07:18 PM | PERMALINK

ps: If Condi runs all bets are off.

Posted by: jacflash at May 30, 2006 07:32 PM | PERMALINK

Condi?!? Really? To me she's in the Bill Richardson cor Rudy Giuliani category of candidates - on paper lots of pluses, but in real life all kinds of problems. Given her interpersonal style I just can't see her kissing babies and whatnot.

Your point about McCain is basically the whole reason I decided to post these today. It seems like everyone sees the McCain/HRC race as much likelier than any other - yet among lots of the party professionals on both sides there isn't much love for either one (well, there's some, but it's not all that wide).

To me the real question is the Mormon issue. If that wasn't an issue I could see multiple scenarios by which Mitt Romney gains lots of support and overtakes McCain (for the reason you mention - tepid support for McCain from the party activists). But given how hard McCain is working to mend fences, and the early reports that religion is popping up as a problem for Romney in a lot of the color stories on his early trips around the country - I've still got to like McCain's odds here too.

Posted by: Armand at May 30, 2006 08:06 PM | PERMALINK

And let's not rule out Colin Powell. He just might excite the Republican base, and also pull some of the African American vote away from the Democrats.

Posted by: Morris at May 30, 2006 08:11 PM | PERMALINK

I don't think Powell will run. I understand his wife was very, very, very, VERY opposed last time around.

I say "all bets are off" re Condi because I don't think her prospects are so easy to predict. She would ROCK the GOP base, at least at first blush. But as you say, she might not wear well on the trail (and she would have to do active daily battle with the national "black leadership", of course, and it'd get ugly). I don't know. I doubt she'll run, but it's a nonzero chance, so worth a thought or two at least.

I've been watching Mitt for years (I've lived in MA since 1991) and he can certainly rise to an occasion better than most. He's genuinely very smart, he gives good soundbite and good speech, he's painfully clean, and he exudes competence. (And he has played the moderate here pretty well, while putting up a somewhat different show out of state). But I have doubts about his ability to really fire up the national GOP base, and I don't know how he gets past the Mormon thing.

Posted by: jacflash at May 30, 2006 08:34 PM | PERMALINK

i feel like mccain's set-up is more secure than HRC's for want of credible opponents. moreover, i think mccain pretty clearly is being anointed by the current powerbrokers (why, i have no idea), which is hard for someone else to overcome. far more so than the dems, the GOP are great at telegraphing who should wear the mantle next, and the writing on the wall right now is pretty clear. aside from powell, who might shake the party to its core by running, i think mccain would have to get drunk and mow down a pedestrian or something to blow this. without someone like rove angling to ruin his chances, it's his nomination to lose, and he'd have to try pretty hard to blow it.

Posted by: moon at May 31, 2006 10:18 AM | PERMALINK

interestingly, i wonder if the GOP's accession to the right hasn't wounded its long-term prospects. bush was marketable because his was the perfect voice to assuage the extremists without alienating the party moderates and independents, no matter how disingenuous he was (especially in '04). but people as extreme as he has been in the breech tend to look like, well, extremists. think frist. they come off as shrill, immoderate, and potentially dangerous, and while the far right likes them, they poll poorly with moderates and independents precisely because they lack the peculiar ability to sell it to the centrist types. i wonder if the GOP isn't flirting with obsolescence to the extent it tries to maintain a far right platform without an appealing mouthpiece for same.

i think that's part of why gingrich strikes me as such an intriguing possibility as the antio-gore. sure he has skeletons. so does gore in the form of a very entrenched reputation as a wooden, over-managed, and much ridiculed politician prone to ridiculous overstatement. but i think, like gore, gingrich has gone back to school and learned the art of plain speech. moreover, gingrich has been making the rounds for years now extolling the virtues of old contract with america conservatism, the intellectually coherent and rationally defensible kind, and there is a silent majority out there all kinds of ready to vote for that.

that's why i think a gore gingrich election would be fascinating in a wishful thinking sort of way. those two as antagonists together could roll back the clock two generations in terms of the sophistication of political discourse, and we'd all be better for it. and if i had to choose a real republican for president, i'd probably choose gingrich. like gore for the dems, gingrich is the smartest republican to gain his sort of prominence in a very very long time. and we could do worse than to have an unabashedly smart and curious person, anyone like that, in the white house. i think the books in the oval office have gathered enough dust at this point. i want a wonk for a change, someone who doesn't publicly mock the idea of being smart.

Posted by: moon at May 31, 2006 10:27 AM | PERMALINK

You ivory-tower intellectual. ;)

Of course as someone who studies FPDM (foreign policy decision making) there's lots of work on different types of political leaders - and if one's goal is a coherent, sustained policy that promotes the national interest (though obviously what that is will be interpreted differently depending on who the leader is), it's best to have a curious, engaged leader who's knowledgeable about the world. With those types, fewer mistakes are made, and fewer policy black holes are allowed to stay that way, and usually they'll put a stop to intra-administration backstabbing that gets in the way of effective management.

I just don't see who Gingrich's base is. Where does his first money and support come from? Or, well, I can see some throughout the country - but where (in terms of people, sectors, geography, industries, whatever) is that first group that really unites behind him?

I

Posted by: Armand at May 31, 2006 10:39 AM | PERMALINK

i'm sure you're right. i said it was wishful thinking. :-)

still, though, the winning democrat ticket is gore-warner.

Posted by: moon at May 31, 2006 10:52 AM | PERMALINK

I find McCain appealing - therefore I doubt he'll be the Republican nominee. :)

Posted by: John at May 31, 2006 11:57 AM | PERMALINK

For whatever it's worth Chris Cillizza's latest column on who's got the Buzz in this race (which seems a lot clearer to me than the Dem race as there's no Gore waiting in the wings - and yes, that means I firmly believe neither Powell nor Rice is going to jump in) lists Allen, McCain, Romney, Huckabee and Giuliani as the candidates with the most "buzz". That sounds right to me, but it also got me thinking - if Giuliani jumps in, who does that hurt? I'd think it would hurt McCain. So maybe it'll be one of the other three in the end. Of those Romney makes the most sense to me. I just have a hard time seeing the business base of the party aligned with Huckbee, though if that can happen, definitely keep an eye on Huckabee. But all that said, at this point I still like McCain's chances.

Though of course he'll be 72 in 2008, which highlights the whole Vice Presidential matter - but I guess we can save that for another post.

Posted by: Armand at June 2, 2006 10:26 AM | PERMALINK

if giuliani jumps in, it hurts everyone. i f*&king hate giuliani with every bone in my body. he's an autocratic charlatan who pissed on new york for years only to find cheap redemption in delivering a couple of paint-by-number post-9/11 speeches that pretty much any big-city mayor in the country would have delivered under similar circumstances.

Posted by: moon at June 2, 2006 10:45 AM | PERMALINK

and he proved as mayor that he's nothing if not bush-league (pun intended); he simply lacks the gravitas and vision the presidency requires. he's still only one step removed from prosecuting mobsters in federal court, and he'll never grow out of the small-picture mentality that requires.

Posted by: moon at June 2, 2006 10:48 AM | PERMALINK

and then there's the whole moving his homewrecker mistress into gracie mansion during the pendency of the divorce. as though the new york pedigree alone weren't enough to sink his candidacy for the GOP nomination, surely his atrocious personal relationship history is.

Posted by: moon at June 2, 2006 10:49 AM | PERMALINK

Well you'll note that in my comment I said who his entrance would hurt, and I implied who it would help - and in that latter category he wasn't one of "the other three" it would help. I don't think Giuliani is anything better than a 20-1 shot (if that) given his history, no matter how popular he might be in public opinion polls.

But it seems to me that his appeal stems heavily from an image that he's an electable, tough, "straight talk" kind of a guy. Given that that's the heart of McCain's image too (and also that the two of them probably both have the softest support, given that that is often associated with very high name ID), it struck me that McCain would suffer more than the others from a Giuliani run.

Posted by: Armand at June 2, 2006 10:58 AM | PERMALINK
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