I honestly haven't closely considered the issue in many weeks. Last time I did, I figured the likely end result was going to be something close to a tie between the two parties (Democratic gains of 12-15 seats). But maybe the political winds really are moving more strongly in the Democrats' direction after all. I say that because of these new rankings of vulnerable House seats from the National Journal (about as non-partisan an analysis unit as you can find). Take a look - of the 18 seats they see as the most likely to switch in November, 17 are held by Republicans. I still have my doubts this will happen, and even if they did pick up, say, 17 seats, that would leave the Democrats with only a very small margin of "control". But ... maybe the House Republicans will be swept from power after all. That would certainly make the last two years of the Bush administration more interesting.
Posted by armand at June 14, 2006 01:27 PM | TrackBack | Posted to PoliticsI wouldn't get my hopes up too much. The election is a very long way away (and much can happen both nationally and locally in each race to change the outcomes), and incumbents have an overwhelming advantage.
Not saying it won't happen, just that its a very, very long shot.
Posted by: baltar at June 14, 2006 02:03 PM | PERMALINKThere's an obvious shift in mainstream sentiment to the Dems going on, despite Dean et al's best efforts to stop it. I'm not sure how that will translate to results on a district-by-gerrymandered-district basis, but I feel that a change in control is a bit more likely than Baltar seems to think.
(If that doesn't make sense, I plead extenuating circumstances, specifically allergy meds. Bleah.)
Posted by: jacflash at June 14, 2006 03:24 PM | PERMALINK