Bloodless Coup

And just what does Israel think it's doing imposing a blockade on another sovereign state?
No wonder they hate the UN - I mean given their penchant for violating its laws.

I don't know what they are up to here - but it's clearly about much more than those 2 soldiers. And yes, I might feel differently (perhaps) if these were US actions taken in response to Americans. But they are not. And given other things that are going on - well, this is astonishly bad news for the US and our personnel stationed abroad given that our people in Iraq are basically equated with the Israelis by a lot of the bad guys and potential bad guys over there. And these kinds of moves will no doubt incite more attacks against Americans.

But given that there doesn't seem to be a single aggressive Israeli move that President Bush hasn't applauded, I don't see the Israelis stopping this any time soon, so I guess the president is ok with us incurring some of the consequences.

All true, but I keep coming back to "What does Israel want?" I can't figure out why more-or-less invading Lebanon will help with any of their security issues (which, last I checked, had more to do with Hamas, Gaza, and Palesting, and Lebanon was more-or-less quiet).

"No wonder they hate the UN - I mean given their penchant for violating its laws."

and in that sense, and not for the first time, they are the leading example of us reaping what we sow with regard to our utter indifference to the UN.

we view that body as, at best, a clearing house for advisory opinions (UN "law"? pshaw!), and until that changes, we can expect nothing more from other countries.

all of that said, i also am sort of perplexed by what israel stands to gain here, and i'm glad i'm not the only one.

Well, clearly they think that it's time to whack Hezbollah. Or at least that's the pretext for... something.

What I find interesting is that Europe and several of the Arab states seem to be willing to stand by and let them go at it.

Yeah, it's the "something" that I wonder about. Israel cannot whack Hezbollah to the point where it will cease to exist, so what they are doing now is just thumping a great ball of dough with a hammer: satisfying, but pointless. So, what are they up to?

I'll quibble with your "Europe and several of the Arab states seem to be willing to stand by and let them go at it" comment. First, several Arab states are probably cheering them on, for their own domestic reasons. Second, I suspect Europe would like Israel to stop. Third, and most importantly, what can any state do to stop them? I think you overestimate the ability of Europe to have influence there.

Baltar, what do you think of Ledeen's take?

No one should have any lingering doubts about what’s going on in the Middle East. It’s war, and it now runs from Gaza into Israel, through Lebanon and thence to Iraq via Syria. There are different instruments, ranging from Hamas in Gaza to Hezbollah in Syria and Lebanon and on to the multifaceted “insurgency” in Iraq. But there is a common prime mover, and that is the Iranian mullahcracy, the revolutionary Islamic fascist state that declared war on us 27 years ago and has yet to be held accountable.

It's worth reading, or at least skimming, the whole thing, looking past the rah-rah obligatory National Review crap to the substance.

Well, Europe probably can't stop them, but unless I've missed something they can certainly make a lot more fuss than they've made so far.

I think Europe has almost no influence over Israel at this point, though I could be wrong. The US has more influence over Israel than Europe, and we're doing nothing but sputtering "Hey, stop that" at Israel.

Ledeen sees too much of an Iranian bogeyman for my taste: certainly Iran sponsors Hezbollah (in a larger sense; they may not have much influence over operational decisions like the fighting); Iran's influence over Hamas is less so, and their influence over the Taliban in Afghanistan and Al Qaeda in Iraq is minimal at best. Iran itself is beset with economic problems, and the closer they move towards nukes the more problematic those economic limitations become (they have oil, but oil does not automatically create wealth, and without wealth you have a country of 60 million pissed off people, who would be happy to have another revolution at some point). Besides, Iran learned the lesson: if you don't have nukes, the US will attack you (Iraq); if you do have nukes, the US won't attack you (North Korea). Thus, they are moving towards nukes.

Also, as we've discussed, if your border is within artillery range of Seoul, the US won't attack you. I actually think that's more to the point than NK's supposed nukes.

Oh, and we're not sputtering "hey stop that." Did you see Rice's remarks today? She's suggesting that Israel "exercise restraint" while telling Syria that now might be a good time to get around to smacking down Hezbollah.

"Nice country you've got here, Bashar. Wouldn't want anything to happen to it, y'know?"

As to the Arab states not jumping up and down with rage, it's important to remember that while a lot of "the street" might respect Hezbollah's
"successes", most of the countries in the region don't like it at all (a successful, influential Shiite party? backed by Iran!?! no thank you).

I can think of scenarios where all of this makes sense from the perspective of Syria, Hezbollah, Iran and (parts of) HAMAS, and where Israel's big attacks against the Palestinians make some sense too (from their perspective) - but I'm having a harder and harder time seeing where this invasion of Lebanon makes sense from an Israeli perspective. Unless of course they are trying (really hard) to force Syria into some bad behavior that then the US (and perhaps a few others) would use as a pretext to further undermine Syria. If not that - well the scale of this is just really odd.

Re forcing Syria into misbehaving, that's what I've been getting at -- that, and maybe forcing Iran to act up, too.

"Nice country you've got here, Bashar. Wouldn't want anything to happen to it, y'know?"

I nearly snorted coffee onto my monitor. Thanks for that.

Aaaaaaand the plot thickens.

Billmon

wow, billmon paints a rather bleak picture.