September 12, 2006

The September 12 Primaries

This is of course the last of the mega-primary days in the '06 calendar. Nine states and DC are holding elections, and there are lots and lots of meaningful races. What will I be following the most closely? The Senate races in Maryland and Rhode Island, the mayoral race in DC (though that's likely to be really predictable), the New York AG race (sadly, really, really sadly, that's also easy to predict), MD Comptroller, and House races in AZ-8, NY-10, NY-11, MD-3, MD-4, MN-5, and heck, RI-2 too, though I'm surely going to be disappointed there (why do I care about that one? in 2 words - stem cells). Oh, and as long as I'm mentioning that one, I might as mention Rhode Island Secretary of State too. I know nothing of the candidates, but I am curious to see if someone named Guillaume de Ramel can actually win statewide office.

Anyway, consider this a thread to spout out any predictions or comments you might want to about today's primaries.

Posted by armand at September 12, 2006 12:40 PM | TrackBack | Posted to Politics


Comments

I hate to say it, but I think Linc loses in RI, and I don't think it'll be close. Baltar, you have any thoughts on that one?

Posted by: jacflash at September 12, 2006 02:53 PM | PERMALINK

Really? The Hotline had reported that turnout is very high, which they thought would help Linc.

Oh, from what I've heard (in bits here and there) is that turnout is low in Maryland, which would presumably benefit Ben Cardin.

Posted by: Armand at September 12, 2006 04:46 PM | PERMALINK

I didn't see the Hotline report, I was just educated-guessing based on what I'd heard of the RI zeitgeist in the last couple of days. We'll know soon enough.

Posted by: jacflash at September 12, 2006 05:12 PM | PERMALINK

Looks like I may have guessed wrong. Linc is leading 54-46 with 73% counted.

Posted by: jacflash at September 12, 2006 10:22 PM | PERMALINK

Yup, same margin now with 90% counted - should be a tight race between him and Sheldon Whitehouse in November.

Posted by: Armand at September 12, 2006 10:49 PM | PERMALINK

Elsewhere things also seem to be going according to expectations - Fenty will be mayor of DC, son of Cuomo posts a big win in the NY AG race, Ed Towns will get another term in Congress from Brooklyn, Ben Cardin and John Sarbanes have big leads in early returns in Maryland.

Races still somewhat up in the air: Al Wynn has a 15 point lead over Donna Edwards in his bid for another term in the House from Maryland, but that's with very early returns. Same problem in the Maryland Comptroller race where all 3 candidates are in the 34-30 range. In really early returns from Minnestoa, Keith Ellison's bid to become the first Muslim in Congress is faltering. And the incredibly nasty House race in Brookyln (NY-11) has been neck-and-neck all night between David Yassky and Yvette Clark. With 80% in, Clark's ahead 30-29 (with Andrews and Owens trailing).

Posted by: Armand at September 12, 2006 10:58 PM | PERMALINK

And in new numbers from the last few minutes - Ellison is now leading in Minnesota 5. He's got 44% with 30% of the vote counted. Mike Erlandson has 31%. Ellison is the official DFL endorsed candidate.

Posted by: Armand at September 12, 2006 11:02 PM | PERMALINK

Looks like it'll be Clarke over Yassky in Brookyln. I've got really mixed feelings about that. It was a horribly racist campaign. She wasn't the worst of the racists, but her campaign engaged in that vile nonsense too. She's got a 3-4% lead with 95% of the vote counted.

Posted by: Armand at September 12, 2006 11:14 PM | PERMALINK

But in the nasty getting their just desserts file ...

Also in New York politics - 9-term state senator Ada Smith, who was recently found guilty of assaulting a former staffer, appears to have lost her bid for another term in office (albeit by less than 200 votes).

Posted by: Armand at September 12, 2006 11:21 PM | PERMALINK

Wow - those must have been some messed-up elections in Maryland. They've still only got 3/4 of the vote counted in some places. As a result we still don't have a winner in MD4 - though Donna Edwards has pulled ahead of incumbent Rep. Wynn. And the Comptroller race remains incredibly close with Peter Franchot now in the lead. Given that he's from Montgomery County and it appears that Montgomery featured some of the biggest election problems ... lawsuit anyone? In less troubling news from Montgomery Country, Ike Leggett was elected as the new county executive of MD's biggest county. An interesting sign of the times in that a black man could win by a huge margin in such a locale (the African-American population of that huge county is pretty small) South of the Mason-Dixon line.

Btw, in AZ8 it'll be Giffords (D) vs. Graf (R) - so everyone seems to assume that Gabby Giffords will pick-up that that, currently held by the one "out" member of the GOP in the House, Jim Kolbe. Keep an eye on Giffords - she's got the makings of an extremely successful politician.

Posted by: Armand at September 13, 2006 08:00 AM | PERMALINK

Anyone doing a general roundup? Can one make any medium term predictions from this? Just curious.

As for Chafee, I haven't lived in Rhode Island in many a year. I never though the state was particulary conservative (that "New England" conservative, which is remarkably moderate, and less conservative than some Southern Democrats). I'm generally not surprised by Chafee winning, though it makes it that much more likely the Republicans will hold Congress past the November elections.

Posted by: baltar at September 13, 2006 09:04 AM | PERMALINK

RI isn't conservative. It's a hair more conservative than MA, maybe, but that's not saying much. But even in MA we could get a critical mass of wingnutters (and some lefties crossing over to play games) to turn out for a primary in which, say, a Club for Growth challenger was going at a sitting GOP senator who had famously refused to vote for the president in the last election.

Not that said Club for Growth challenger would have had a snowball's chance in the general, of course, hence the lefties crossing over.

Posted by: jacflash at September 13, 2006 09:21 AM | PERMALINK

CQ (www.cqpolitics.com) has a run down on lots of the races. The only House primaries that likely have an impact on the fall (that I can think of) are AZ8 (good for the Dems) and WI8 (I'm not sure if it's good for the Dems or not, but they can probably save some money given they nominated a self-funder).

As to the Senate - yeah, Chafee's win makes things harder for the Dems.

Posted by: Armand at September 13, 2006 09:23 AM | PERMALINK

Looks like Peter Franchot has eked out a win for Maryland Comptroller. Yay! The old (really old) one had become a gross embarrassment to the state. And it appears that Rep. Wynn is going to survive in Maryland and barely defeat Donna Edward. That's sort of a shame - but if there's such a thing as a good loss, well, that Edwards made it that close was amazing.

Posted by: Armand at September 13, 2006 02:49 PM | PERMALINK
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