September 14, 2006

Age and One's Perspective on the Fall Election

Chris Bowers notes that Charlie Cook sees a big split on how people are forecasting the November election. Those under 40 see much better prospects for the GOP than those over 40. I think Bowers' read on this is quite right - that people in these two age groups have grown up with different understandings of the "natural ruling party", and use different elections as key analogies when looking to November 2006. But I think it also goes a bit farther than what Bowers is saying. Politics in the 1980's and before strikes me as quite a bit different than today, in terms of what now seems to determine elections. Changes in gerrymandering are part of this of course (and the number of competitive seats), as are changes in campaign communications, financing, and the nature of get out the vote efforts. But even that might not be the whole story. Do you have any thoughts on what might explain this split?

Posted by armand at September 14, 2006 09:41 AM | TrackBack | Posted to Politics


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