Bloodless Coup

Who Should Replace William Jefferson (D-LA)?

While there seems to be a broad consensus including most everyone outside his family and political organization that the congressman from New Orleans should be denied another term, I'm having some trouble figuring out who I think should replace him. There is a Republican candidate, but several GOP bigwigs, like former Congressman Billy Tauzin, state Sen. (and possible gubenatorial candidate) Walter Boasso, and money chieftan/ party pooh-bah Boysie Bollinger are backing Democratic state Rep. Karen Carter. Carter also has the endorsement of the Times-Picayune and such leaders of the good ole boy side of her party as former US senators John Breaux and Bennett Johnston and former congressman Chris John, plus that of US Senator Mary Landrieu - perhaps no great shock as she's been on the DLC's 100 to Watch list. And of course she's got her family's usual political allies, and several prominent New Orleanian politicians like Jim Singleton and City Council President Oliver Thomas, probably the most popular politician in Orleans Parish. Now that's broad and varied support, but it's being cut into by former city councilman Troy Carter's candidacy. Geographically, he and Karen Carter (no relation) have a similar base, he's polling better than expected, and he has the support of Councilman Arnie Fielkow who's probably the most popular new face in the city's political scence. Which leaves us with state Sen. Derrick Sheperd, who's known to be a more aggressive figure than Karen Carter (she's more of a traditional deal maker and policy wonk), and is also known for his impressively fast rise in political circles over the last few years. He's mostly backed by figures in his West Bank/Jefferson Parish base (which is likely to be a much bigger force in the district post-Katrina), but he's also snagged a few significant endorsements from New Orleans figures like Jackie Clarkson (former city council member and mother of the divine actress) and Audubon Institute head Ron Forman (who was the choice of a lot of the Republican/business-friendly estabilishment in this year's mayoral race). Put all that together and ... I don't know, what do you get? A race in which the cues are confusing, that's for sure.

The pundits seems to be predicting a Karen Carter/Bill Jefferson run-off that Carter will win handily. But at this point it's unclear what's going to happen here. And the polls aren't clarifying the matter.