Okay all of you who follow US politics, it's time to predict the elections. Don't worry about looking foolish - guessing election outcomes incorrectly has yet to result in any TV pundit ever losing his or her job (even when they do it again and again and again ...), so if it doesn't matter there, why should you care about a bad guess here (where far fewer people will see it)? And of course that's all this is, a (somewhat educated) guess. With that in mind - give us your predictions!
I'll start. I'll guess that the Democrats will net 7 new governors, 6 senators and about 30 members of Congress. Am I being too hopeful? Quite possibly, but I don't think these are unreasonable estimates - though I think it's also perfectly reasonable to expect a Democratic net gain of only 2 Senate seats. But my prediction is big Democratic gains across the board - 7 governors, 6 Senate, around 30 House.
Posted by armand at November 6, 2006 11:01 PM | TrackBack | Posted to PoliticsMy unscientific predition: the democrats take 2 to 4 seats over what they need for a majority in the House (and I think I may be overestimating), and get to 49/51 in the Senate (not enough for Dick Cheney to have to show up regularly to cast votes). My alternative prediction: control of the House will be so close that it won't be decided on Tuesday night, but will drag on (in legal battles) for 48 hours.
I should care about Governors, but I don't.
Posted by: baltar at November 6, 2006 11:26 PM | PERMALINKArmand, doesn't six senators require Ford to win Tennessee? It doesn't sound like that can happen.
Posted by: moon at November 7, 2006 11:28 AM | PERMALINKThe 6 would be (presuming Dems hold all their seats, which is far from a sure thing) - MO, VA, RI, PA, MT and OH.
And no predictions here at the Coup from ya'll?
Posted by: Armand at November 7, 2006 12:00 PM | PERMALINKi honestly don't follow close enough to know. i know enough to know you're being very optimistic, and i probably tend more toward baltar's guesses from sheer skepticism, but honestly, i'd just be throwing numbers out there if i tried to guess. if i'm not prepared to sit down and take a wave at each contested district and state, it seems silly to just say, dems end up with 217 or 50, or whathaveyou. all of that said, i do hope you're right about the senate.
Posted by: moon at November 7, 2006 01:10 PM | PERMALINKGo me (and Tester and Webb and ...) - it looks like my prediction was just about on target.
Posted by: Armand at November 8, 2006 10:15 AM | PERMALINK