Bloodless Coup

What the hell is this administration up to?

Deckchairs on the Titanic?

Yeah, that's possible. However, I question your analogy: it isn't clear that the USA is the Titanic (destined to sink). I hold out hope that we are a slightly wounded ship that still might make repairs and keep going. Thus, replacing the radar operator (an analogy to Negroponte's position as head of ONI) while sailing through some icebergs is idiotic. Especially since (pushing this analogy as far as it will go) not everyone believes in radar, or the operator.

Again, what the hell is this administration thinking?

I was thinking more like the administration is the Titanic, but, you know, as usual, mostly just being snarky.

If Negroponte wants to leave it would seem that there might well be something wrong with the ONI job. And if there's something wrong with the job itself (little power or resources, accountability problems, chain of command issues, whatever) stability in the position might not be as valuable as you suggest.

And I'm rather surprised at your concerns about a military man heading ONI, given that for decades military people have played major roles at places like the CIA and NSA. Just b/c someone comes out of a military branch doesn't mean they aren't fit for this type of position.

I haven't followed this closely. Do we know that Negroponte sought this move? Do we know he wants it? I mean, sometimes you change jobs because the President calls and tells you you're changing jobs, y'know?

Which is why I favor the "deckchair shuffling" hypothesis, with the idea that someone thinks it's supposed to look like something is happening.

Armand, while the military has been involved in the intelligence community (I think this is a more recent trend, not a long term thing; the CIA back in the 50s and 60s was a dumping ground for the Ivy League), it has been rare for the military to run the intelligence agencies. I certainly agree that a military man isn't definitionally incapable of running an intel agency, but I do think that a career in the military has the potential to limit the worldview of a person, and that can translate into bad decisions/thinking. I didn't have an objection when some of the intel agencies were run by the military, but I worry when all of the agencies are.

And there isn't anything wrong with the ONI job. It replicates the DCI job in many ways, and the flaw with that position was bureaucratic: being the titular head of all intelligence, without budgetary authority over all the other intelligence agencies, means you really aren't head of anything. Every DCI found this out, and now Negroponte did. It doesn't make the position any less important. I'll say it again: I wasn't in favor of the ONI position, and once it was created I wasn't in favor of Negroponte getting it. But being where we are, having turnover in ONI, CIA and the Pentagon all within the last few months is not good for medium and long term intelligence planning and operations (short term day-to-day should be OK). Stability is important now, and we aren't getting that.

Jacflash, while it is true that you go where the President asks, news reports on this one are that Negroponte wanted to go back to State (where he came out of), and that the President wasn't asking for this change (Rice has been asking for Negroponte for a while, to beef up knowledge on Iraq in State, which now runs Iraq; that's the source of the move).

Well, I kind of get your concern about the military taking control of intelligence - but what I meant in that second paragraph is that there have long been a lot of military men (and women) who are very much intelligence professionals. McConnell, for example, has loads more intel experience than Negroponte. So while maybe it's not ideal for military officers to dominate the upper branches of the intel agencies, many of them have more experience in that area than others.

Something none of us have noted yet is that Condi's basically all alone on the 7th floor. With Zoellick and Zelikow out (and aren't there other top vacancies there?) - State's been lacking senior officers for some time. And moving Negroponte there fills a key whole in the foreign policy administration - one that may have been harder to fill than ONI, given the close eye the White House (or Cheney) keeps on State.

Again, I have no problem with military people working in intelligence, I just argue that "military intelligence" is a far, far different kettle of fish than traditional (CIA-like) intelligence. Both are necessary, but an individual brought up in military intelligence may not have the background to work effectively in "civilian" intelligence agencies. Thus, I've never objected to NSA being (essentially) an arm of the Pentagon (signals intel and secure comms are likely worth more as operational/tactical intel for the military than they are for policy makers), but I started getting nervous when Hayden moved to CIA, and putting McConnell into ONI doesn't make me any happier. These concerns may be groundless (though I haven't heard much from Hayden since he moved, which may be either good or bad).

As for getting Rice some brainpower, I have two comments: first, I find it hard to believe that Negroponte is the only candidate for any empty position at State and, second, I think you can give Rice all the brainpower in the world and she still won't produce a useful foreign policy.

"I think you can give Rice all the brainpower in the world and she still won't produce a useful foreign policy." - Yeah, you are probably onto something there Baltar.

It's not that he's the only candidate, but for whatever reason this administration is shockingly slow at filling top positions. To some extent it's fighting amongst the various cliques that never, ever gets stopped in this White House (sites like The Washington Note rundown the battles over would-be personnel all the time), though of course some of it seems like simple carelessness or not caring period (the years of leaving Treausury basically empty, being so slow to nominate federal judges ...). But whatever the reason for it happening, it happens all the time. Rice hasn't had a deputy in ages (for that matter, neither has Negroponte, and of course post-Wolfowitz the Deputy job at DOD wasn't formally filled for ages either) and it seems to me that leaving a position like that unfilled is as problematic as bringing in a new ONI (though yeah, that's a problem too).

It would be nice if we had competent managers in charge of the country - but given that we have a fixed election system and an unusual incompetent manager in charge at the moment, guess we'll have to wait 2 more years for that.

Now this'd be an interesting plot twist, wouldn't it?

Yes, that would be interesting. Not believable, but interesting.

I'm not remotely in favor of Condi as VP. Nor of Negroponte as SecState. Can't Bush find someone remotely useful?