Bloodless Coup

The Dearth of Republican Vice Presidential Possibilities

So I know others (who are more specialized in American politics than I am) who would disagree, but it seems to me that the likeliest Republican presidential nominees are Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani. It also seems to me that if either one of them wins the nomination, they will be quite constrained when making their pick for the vice presidential nod. Both Romney and Giuliani are deeply distrusted by (at least) one key component of the Republican base. In particular, both are seen as suspect on matters key to the party's Sunbelt base. So it seems to me that they won't be able to pick anyone who might be suspected of having moderate tendencies (say goodbye to the Lamar Alexander and Mel Martinez types). But at the same time if they go for a full-on knuck-dragging "crazy", they run the risk of drawing stark distinctions that make it all the more clear why Romney and Giuliani are suspect in the first place (as well as inviting all kinds of negative stories in the national press). It will probably help them to have a nominee who appeals to true-blue conservatives, and a vice presidential nominee from the Sunbelt might seem particularly attractive.

All that said, just who is there to choose from? When all is said and done, there are probably two of their current (more or less) opponents who will merit consideration, Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson. But who else would be the right kind of match for a Romney or Giuliani ticket? When it comes to other Southerners, I don't see any other people who fit quite right, except, possibly, for Gov. Bob Riley of Alabama, Rep. Eric Cantor of Virginia (for Giuliani, not Romney - I don't see any way a Mormon/Jew ticket would fly), and maybe (though not really) Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas (if there was a push to have a woman on the ticket, since they'll likely be facing a ticket headed by Senator Clinton.

Who else is there? It seems to me that there are three Sunbelt possibilities from Arizona. No, not John McCain. But his Senate colleague Jon Kyl is very well liked in traditional Republican circles, and he has the sort of staid, serious demeanor that could work well in vice presidential campaign. Arizona is also home to two of the members of Congress who have been most active in pushing the Republican party to the right (John Shadegg) and pushing it to fiscal responsibility and curbing spending (Jeff Flake). Flake couldn't run with Romney, both are Mormons, but I think he'd clearly excite the base, while also not terrifying the country at large. Is there anyone from outside the Sunbelt who might fit the bill? Only two names come to mind. Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty is well thought of in conservative circles, but he's so closely tied to the McCain campaign that I don't know if anyone else would consider him. My final idea? Rob Portman. The former Ohio congressman was immensely well liked by Republicans in the House (he could probably have been Speaker if he'd wanted to be), and he "took one for the team" and worked in the Bush administration (USTR and OMB). He's got loads of pluses on this matter, and he comes from vote-rich, purple Ohio.

Anyway, am I leaving anyone out? It's really hard to predict these things I know. It's a deeply personal choice on the part of the presidential nominee (who whoever he delegates with the task), and there are so few people who are picked that examining this issue is notoriously difficult because ofthe low N problem (small number of cases to analyze). But it does seem to me that given Giuliani and Romney's special challenges with their base, that they won't have as wide a set of possibilities to choose from as some other nominees might.