January 02, 2008

The Undemocratic (Especially for the Democrats) Iowa Caucuses

Jeff Greenfield reminds us that it's a good thing most of our elections aren't conducted like the Iowa caucuses.

Posted by armand at January 2, 2008 03:09 PM | TrackBack | Posted to Politics


Comments

It's Iowa day, gang! Any last-minute predictions? I'm sticking with O-E-C in a tight 1-2-3 on the Dem side, but no clue on the Republican side. Anyone?

Posted by: jacflash at January 3, 2008 12:02 PM | PERMALINK

Geez I don't know. The process on the Dem side is so complicated. But I'll change my predictions from what I said before (which are no doubt influenced by the fact that people I want to win elections often don't). For the Democrats I'll go with you and say Obama, Edwards, Clinton. For the Republicans I'll say Huckabee and Romney basically tie, but that Huckabee will get 1-3% more support, and that'll count as a win in the press. But the only prediction I'm super confident about is saying that the press will blow these results, whatever they may be, out of their proper propotion.

Posted by: Armand at January 3, 2008 12:55 PM | PERMALINK

Woo-hoo! It was indeed Obama, Edwards, Clinton. And I've got to say Obama's margin of victory was very impressive.

Though perhaps even more notable were 2 things dealing with the GOP - Romney (the candidate of the non-born again) only mustering 25%, and CNN's insistence that Ron Paul didn't exist. That pie chart of theirs was driving me batty all night. They continually put McCain's name next to his 12 or 13%. But Paul's 10% - all night long that was a blank space. What gives?

Posted by: Armand at January 4, 2008 01:16 AM | PERMALINK

Yeah, the margins weren't as tight as I thought they'd be on the Dem side. I like Obama more every day, so I'm pleased.

On the GOP side... it will be interesting to see how Romney does in NH. His campaign could be effectively over in a week.

Posted by: jacflash at January 4, 2008 08:34 AM | PERMALINK

I was particularly impressed by the raw numbers: about 240k Democrats came out to caucus, while only 110k Republicans. Lots more energy on the Democratic side; this doesn't look good for Republicans in the general.

Posted by: baltar at January 4, 2008 10:08 AM | PERMALINK

The Democratic numbers are staggering, and make Obama's win that much more impressive.

As to the Republicans, yeah, a trainwreck. Though I think Mitt's very much in this all the way through Feb. 5. Huckabee and McCain are both too hated by parts of the base. Neither will win (if they win) easily or quickly. Pass the popcorn!

Posted by: Armand at January 4, 2008 11:56 AM | PERMALINK

Yah, either a Mitt or a Huckleberry Hound candidate may be more disastrous than a Hillary candidate would be for the Dems. But everyone's ignoring that Thompson finished 3rd. Now on to New Hampshire which is just as meaningless to Republican presidential politics as Iowa is to the Democrats. Woo hoo!

Posted by: Morris at January 4, 2008 01:33 PM | PERMALINK

I think you are confusing should be meaningless with actually meaningless. NH could matter to the GOP, whether or not it should.

Posted by: Armand at January 4, 2008 01:50 PM | PERMALINK

Fred has no money and doesn't appear to want it badly enough. I predict NH will go to McCain, with Romney, Paul, Fred, and maybe Huck making low-double-digit showings well back.

Posted by: jacflash at January 4, 2008 01:51 PM | PERMALINK
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