January 30, 2008

John Edwards Is Dropping Out

That's according to the AP.

So, how do you think this will affect the rest of the race for the nomination?

Posted by armand at January 30, 2008 09:14 AM | TrackBack | Posted to Politics


The quick and obvious answer is that it depends on whether he endorses someone, and if he does so before next Tuesday.

I don't have a good feel for whether his supporters' second choice is more likely to be HRC or Obama. Maybe after I drink some more coffee I'll go look for some polling data.

Posted by: jacflash at January 30, 2008 10:14 AM | PERMALINK

It helps Clinton. While the initial thought was that Edwards and Obama have been dividing the anti-Clinton vote, that overlooks race. Considering that Obama has been getting only 25% of white voters (maybe only isn't the right word given history) and that virtually all of Edwards' voters have been white, I think it unlikely that Obama now pulls half of those voters. It may very well be that Clinton and Edwards have been splitting the anti-Obama vote.

Posted by: Bruce at January 30, 2008 10:20 AM | PERMALINK

My first thought is to agree with you Bruce. I think this is terrible news for Obama in the South. And I think that Clinton is still many peoples default choice, so unless they have some reason to oppose her ... well, I suppose I too need to look more closely at the poll numbers, but my first thought is that this helps HRC.

Posted by: Armand at January 30, 2008 10:44 AM | PERMALINK

Intriguing theory making the rounds: Edwards dropped out today to steal the news cycle from Hillary and her FL "win". He'll play coy for a couple of days and then endorse Obama and get another news cycle out of it.

Not sure what I make of it, but it explains the timing well.

Posted by: jacflash at January 30, 2008 08:54 PM | PERMALINK
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