July 12, 2008

Zimbabwe, Russia, and the US

Zimbabwe is a mess. Mugabe has clearly "stolen" the election via violence and intimidation. For whatever reason (likely related to past histories of colonialism and rejecting those former colonizers politics), the African states (especially South Africa) seem unwilling to put much pressure on Mugabe to leave/make concessions. The US has little influence in Africa; not a lot of trade (compared to Europe/Asia/Latin America), not any troops (AFRICOM still isn't really up and running, and won't have a lot of assets in any event), and no real political interest (most Americans don't know or care about what happens there; witness US lack-of-reaction to Darfur).

But Bush, to his credit, did what he could. He pushed the UN to take direct action against Mugabe, and put economic sanctions in place. Problem was, Russia and China vetoed it. So, Mugabe wins (at least until he dies of old age; he's in his 80s).

What is more interesting (and less depressing to think about) is why China and Russia vetoed the UN Security Council resolution. The NYT article makes clear that Russia was taking the lead on this, and China just came along (China wouldn't have vetoed it alone). Farley (over at LGM) argues that Russia has no interests in Zimbabwe, and is just thumbing their noses at us because we're annoying them over other issues (missile defense, Iran, etc.). That seems reasonable (and likely one of the reasons), but I don't think we can completely reject the Russian's stated reasons: unwanted interference in a sovereign nation's internal affairs. Russia clearly doesn't want the world to have any say in how they conduct business and politics (the same is likely true for China). So, sure, Russia (as Farley notes) is likely playing Great Power Realism Tit-For-Tat Tennis Bargaining (volleying stuff back and forth), but they are also continuing a long-standing trend of pushing back against the Western/US poking and prodding that we have done to Russia. From our perspective, the last ten years have seen Russia move in a bad direction (away from open democracy, towards closed authoritarianism). Russians view it the other way: the last ten years have moved the country away from political and economic chaos and towards prosperity and respect (Chechnya is mostly OK, oil prices have made them rich, etc.). From the Russian point of view, the last ten years have also coincided with a move towards pushing away Western institutions (businesses and NGOs) and Western ideas (democracy, capitalism). For many Russians, this relationship is causal (rejecting Western ideas/institutions has caused their prosperity/respect) not coincidental. So, when the US wants to sanction Zimbabwe for having an election that looks a bit like the last Russian one, there are real ideological strains within Russia that oppose US/Western influence in any country.

Posted by baltar at July 12, 2008 10:35 AM | TrackBack | Posted to International Affairs | Politics


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