Bloodless Coup

So, some people are thinking the pick will be announced tomorrow (Monday), and in any event it will be soon, so with that in mind Nate Silver has a post up going over the prices of the possibilities on Intrade. He seems to think that the two current favorites (Biden and Bayh) are rated about where they should be rated. Who does he think is undervalued (a possible pick that people aren't talking much about)? Sebelius, Nunn, and Jack Reed. I'm starting to think Nunn really could be the choice (not will be, but truly could be). And that's - odd.

I'm starting to feel like it will be a centrist foreign policy/armed services dean. Maybe not Nunn, who is kind of faceless on the national scene at this point, but possibly Biden (I know what I said last week, I still don't think it'd be a great idea, but I see the winds shifting and he'd be lots better than Nunn.) I think Jack Reed is a real long shot. Give him eight years and we'll see. I get why people like the idea of Sebelius but she's not a foreign policy whiz and not a National Presence (yet) and her gender might make for a little too much groundbreaking for one ticket.

Hell, Dick Lugar or Chuck Hagel would fit well too. Those are far more likely to be Cabinet choices, but stranger things have happened, and that would be an entertaining way to offset a possible Lieberman choice.

Well, I think Biden is a lousy idea too, but if Steve Clemons is to be believed (and maybe he's not, but if he is) it's not Bayh, Reed, Daschle or Clark - so who would that leave in terms of foreign policy/security picks? Biden and ... Chet Edwards? Sam Nunn?

And I'd say Hagel will surely have a job in an Obama administration, should he want one. UN Ambassador and DCI would seem possibilities.

Biden does have one big advantage over most others: He is totally unafraid to stand on the big stage and call out McCain on temperament, lack of managerial experience, and lack of nuanced foreign policy understanding in blunt and direct language, and he has the stature to back it up.

He will make two or three big stupid gaffes during the campaign (maybe that's why Obama is waiting until the last minute to name him?) but managed correctly, he could add a lot more than he detracts.