Bloodless Coup

Kinda makes you wonder which of two emerging narratives is true: the by-now familiar, Obama's got an increasingly comfortable lead story, seasoned by McCain's apparent absence of any idea how to blunt the momentum; or the even newer, given recent behavior, Obama's actually crushing, and it's going to take a week or two for polls to catch up. I mean, he's leading among over 50 yo likely voters in WV? By 5!? Holy shit.

Two months ago I told a friend that I thought McCain would lose by "Mondale-like margins".

I was kinda joking.

FWIW, and I know y'all know this, the gap will surely close somewhat before Election Day.

of course you're right, jac, but the question is, close from where it is right now, or close from where it is, say, a week before election day. i could see obama solidifying a ten-point lead between now and the last week in october, slipping a little in the popular vote numbers on election day, and still winning by the 375+EV landslide that nate silver is calling a 33% chance with (relatively) well over 50% popular.

I haven't a clue. Calling a bottom on McCain's numbers seems to me like trying to call a bottom on the S&P 500. It's falling hard, and at some point it'll stop, but where and when I can't guess.

Sure looks like WV's in play. Might not be Obama's yet, or ever, but, if only for the mandate and the psychological effect, I think it's worth going on offense there.