October 09, 2008

Obama Up By 8 in West Virginia?!?

These numbers are stunning.

Posted by armand at October 9, 2008 02:21 PM | TrackBack | Posted to West Virginia


Kinda makes you wonder which of two emerging narratives is true: the by-now familiar, Obama's got an increasingly comfortable lead story, seasoned by McCain's apparent absence of any idea how to blunt the momentum; or the even newer, given recent behavior, Obama's actually crushing, and it's going to take a week or two for polls to catch up. I mean, he's leading among over 50 yo likely voters in WV? By 5!? Holy shit.

Posted by: moon at October 9, 2008 02:49 PM | PERMALINK

Two months ago I told a friend that I thought McCain would lose by "Mondale-like margins".

I was kinda joking.

FWIW, and I know y'all know this, the gap will surely close somewhat before Election Day.

Posted by: jacflash at October 9, 2008 03:08 PM | PERMALINK

of course you're right, jac, but the question is, close from where it is right now, or close from where it is, say, a week before election day. i could see obama solidifying a ten-point lead between now and the last week in october, slipping a little in the popular vote numbers on election day, and still winning by the 375+EV landslide that nate silver is calling a 33% chance with (relatively) well over 50% popular.

Posted by: moon at October 9, 2008 03:48 PM | PERMALINK

I haven't a clue. Calling a bottom on McCain's numbers seems to me like trying to call a bottom on the S&P 500. It's falling hard, and at some point it'll stop, but where and when I can't guess.

Posted by: jacflash at October 9, 2008 04:57 PM | PERMALINK

Sure looks like WV's in play. Might not be Obama's yet, or ever, but, if only for the mandate and the psychological effect, I think it's worth going on offense there.

Posted by: moon at October 9, 2008 09:26 PM | PERMALINK
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