October 25, 2008

If Not Hillary, Then Who? Women Who Could Run in 2016

Just throwing this out there on a slow, rainy Saturday afternoon. Yes, it's waaaay early. But since several of us like to speculate about such things ...

This week, as it has started to look more and more like Sen. Obama is going to win the presidency 10 days from now, I began to think future election cycles. In particular, I began to think about who might possibly emerge as the Democratic Party's first female presidential candidate. If Sen. Obama wins he will, in all likelihood, be the party's nominee once more in 2012. But what happens in 2016? That's 100 lifetimes away in politics. But at the same time party nominees tend to come from a narrow range of possible candidates. They fit within a particular ideological spectrum. They can raise money. And they are almost always sitting governors or sitting senators. So trying to think of who could be the nominee 8 years from now really isn't all that crazy.

So if someone was hoping to back a female contender in 2016, who should they have their eye on? Well, at the moment they should be keeping their eyes on people who have yet to emerge on the national scene. I partially say that because more often than not during my lifetime running against Washington has been the road to success at the national level. I also say that given that 1) the current female governors may very well be out of the public eye 8 years from now, 2) people rarely discuss presidential runs by any of the women who would currently be classified as veterans in the Senate, and 3) of those whose names would be mentioned in such a conversation (Feinstein and Boxer, and for that matter Clinton), they'll be pretty old in 2016.

So who does that leave us with? I'd say these are the top 5 contenders.

Lisa Madigan, the Attorney General of Illinois. If she should run against and defeat the Illinois' unpopular Democratic governor in 2010, and she might, she would have an excellent platform from which to run.

Alex Sink, the CFO of Florida. If she runs against and defeats Sen. Martinez (R) in 2010, she'd have 6 years of Senate experience to run on, on top of her years in the private sector. She's married to another prominent politician (Bill McBride), comes from a swing state, and should be able to raise a lot of money.

Kay Hagan, currently running against Sen. Dole in North Carolina. A moderate woman from one of this year's top battlegrounds, if she wins this year and in 2014 she could emerge as possibility. North Carolina is a big state, and she may also be able to raise money.

Claire McCaskill, the junior senator from Missouri. Elected in 2006, she's been one of the Obama campaign's best surrogates. She also comes from a battleground state. She serves on key committees, and would seem to be a viable option if she's reelected in 2012.

A woman from Nevada who defeats Gov. Gibbons in 2010 or Sen. Ensign in 2012. Nevada is another swing state and fundraising center, and of course it's key to the Southwestern strategy advocated by Tom Schaller and others. Nevada has a deep Democratic bench thanks to the 2006 elections, and one of several women could rise higher there including Kate Marshall, Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto and Speaker Barbara Buckley.

There are other possibilities as well. If Rep. Betty Sutton (OH) was to win Sen. Voinovich's seat in 2010 she could be in the mix, as could Tammy Duckworth if she's appointed to Sen. Obama's seat in the Senate, or Susan Gaertner if she unseats Gov. Pawlenty in Minnesota in 2010 (though that's unlikely). And perhaps some sitting senator will arise to greater heights by then. In any event, now that the glass ceiling has been cracked, I would think that a woman is sure to be a major candidate in 2016 and it will be interesting to see who emerges.

Posted by armand at October 25, 2008 03:18 PM | TrackBack | Posted to Politics


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