Bloodless Coup

Filling the Cabinet

Baltar raises an interesting point in the comments section of the post on Dan Drezner’s latest thoughts on the campaign – there has been extremely little discussion of who would serve as Secretary of Defense in a John Kerry administration. In fact there has been little discussion of who would serve in senior cabinet posts during the next four years regardless of who wins.

So here is your assignment for the next couple of days – think about who you think George Bush and John Kerry would name as Secretary of Defense and Secretary of State and discuss how this affects your view of the prospects for either potential presidency. I think this is a great topic to get posts going from a variety of readers.

I’ll get things started. It strikes me that while Bush might not get rid of Powell and Rumsfeld immediately (especially if there are major military operations right after the election) both are likely to leave their offices in a second Bush term. Who replaces Powell? I’d say our ambassador to the United Nations, former Sen. Jack Danforth of Missouri has the best shot. He’d be easily confirmed, he’s respected (he was on the short list for Vice President), and he the kind of patrician and serious yet caring demeanor that Bush may favor at State. I wonder as well if our ambassador to Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilizad might not have a shot at this post. Bush values having a racially diverse team, Khalilizad seems to be a competent administrator, and he’s likely to stay on message with the White House team given his association with the Project for a New American Century. And of course USTR Robert Zoellick may have a shot at it if he wants it and can’t get named Treasury Secretary. But really I don’t know that it matters who fills this slot given President Bush’s apparent distaste/contempt for the State Department. If Powell couldn’t win the department any respect from Bush, can any of these men? And if the president is disinterested in the views of his specialists in foreign policy, even when they are represented by an able individual (be it a Powell or a Zoellick) – is that the kind of president who should have administering our government?

I’ve long thought that NASA Administrator Sean O’Keefe would replace Rumsfeld, particularly as Paul Wolfowitz’s reputation has become ever more tarnished. But at this stage I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Condi Rice (she has announced she wants to leave the NSC post) nominated for this job. Why? Because I wonder if O’Keefe has been away from Defense issues and outside the national-security loop for too long. The president may want to have someone with more immediate experience on the Iraq issue to carry out the war. If you’ve been reading this blog for long you’ll know that I find the prospect of a Secretary Rice at once revolting and scary beyond words.

As to Kerry, I think he will name Richard Holbrooke as Secretary of State. I am pleased by this possibility. Yes, he’s a media hound. But he does get things done, and I think his general beliefs about foreign policy would fit very well with the kinds of policies Kerry has announced he hopes to carry out. Also, I think that appointment would likely mean that the State Department would have a greater impact on government policy than it would have under a Bush presidency – and I think that would be a good thing.

As Kerry’s Defense Secretary … who knows? On Don Imus Kerry listed 4 possibilities: Senators McCain, Warner, and Levin, and former Secretary of Defense Perry. I can’t imagine McCain or Warner would take the job and Perry is 77, so I view his appointment as unlikely. That leaves Levin. Levin has long been known as one of the brightest and most hard-working member of Congress, and he knows DOD issues backwards and forwards. I think he’d be a fine choice, however, it strikes me that Levin and another senior senator I think a lot of and who might otherwise be an appealing prospect (I’m referring to Bob Graham of Florida) both suffer from two potential problems. First, they are politicians and it strikes me that of the last 4 men to serve as Secretary of Defense under Democratic administrations (that is, the 4 since LBJ) the two who were politicians were notably less impressive than the two who were not. Secondly, I don’t think either of them ever served in the military and that’s not going to be looked on favorably in certain quarters. Nonetheless, it strikes me that Levin is perhaps the leading contender, and if that were to occur I would not be disappointed.

But if it’s not Levin – who? Kerry’s list opens the door to naming a Republican, as President Clinton did in his second term. But given the current political climate I’m having a hard time thinking of a senior Republican who would take the job. Still, I’d say that a Republican nominee is a definite possibility. The only other politician that makes immediate sense to me is Rep. John Spratt of South Carolina. He’s been on the House Armed Services Committee for decades and is, like Levin, extremely bright and hard-working. However, like Levin I don’t think he served in the military, and as the top Democrat on the House Budget Committee it’s probably more likely he’d be selected to run Kerry’s budget office.

Other possibilities? Well, it could be a Clinton era-official (Walter Slocombe, John Hamre, Rudy de Leon), but honestly I don’t know much about the second and third-tier leadership of the DOD at that time. I will note though that the two most successful and capable (to my eyes) Secretaries under Democratic presidents (Brown and Perry) both held doctorates and served in the DOD as director of defense research and engineering prior to their appointment as Secretary. Given current events I’m not sure Kerry would name a scientist, but given that lack of discussion on this topic I suppose anything is possible.

If it comes down to a choice of Rice versus the Kerry Mystery Candidate – here as well I will opt for even an unknown Democrat given Rice’s long record of ineptitude and mendacity.