Bloodless Coup

Updates on the War in Lebanon and Israel

Marc Lynch notes how the war is gravely weakening (killing off entirely?) the domestic political position of moderating and liberalizing forces in the Arab world.

Since 9/11 this has been a constant refrain among many Arab reformers and liberals: Bush's foreign policy has tended to harm precisely those liberals whose visions of reform he claimed to nurture. Judging not only by Saghiye but by the overwhelming weight of comments I've heard and read in the last two weeks, the American position on the Lebanon war seems to be putting the final killing touches.

And while we are making life impossible for our Arab-world allies (and endangering our own future in the process), al Qaeda is likely doing a giddy dance of joy at the latest ineptitude of the Bush administration. Our policies are strengthening the arguments al Qaeda is trying to make, and thereby increasing their power over the region's historical narrative and understanding of international relations - we are helping them define the world in a way that makes us look like a threatening enemy, and makes them a protector of a culture and society under attack .

Key elements such as: the idea of equating Israel and America as partners in the Zionist-Crusader Alliance against Islam; the idea that the West does not value Muslim lives; the idea that the West will never allow Islamist parties to win democratic elections; the idea that Islam and the West are locked in an eternal struggle which can only be decided by power rather than by dialogue or diplomacy, and that peaceful co-existence is impossible. I'd reckon that such ideas look a lot more common-sensical today than they did a month ago across the Arab and Muslim worlds ... Just as Iraq served al-Qaeda's strategy by supplying an endless stream of images of "heroic mujahideen" fighting against "brutal Americans" - and became less useful as images of dead Iraqi civilians began to complicate the picture - the Lebanon war offers an unending supply of images and actions which powerfully support al-Qaeda's narrative and world-view ... The unilateral use of force, particularly when it resonates so intensely with the narrative frame you are trying to discredit, simply doesn't help in this real war of ideas. The war on terror is a strong reason that the United States should have acted to contain the crisis rather than giving Israel a free hand, not a reason for it to support the war's continuation.

In light of the massive death toll in Qana (to clarify, this year's massive death toll in Qana), Jonathan makes some good Realist points about wars being a policy in the service of political ends - and how this war is being very poorly fought, given its broader purpose. He sees Hezbollah gaining power, not losing power.

... dozens of people died for nothing - in fact, for worse than nothing - in a way that was entirely predictable. The attack that killed them may or may not have been a legal use of force, but it was unquestionably a stupid use of force.

And much as Marc Lynch is worried about the US-supported Israeli actions killing off moderates and liberalizing influences in the region, Juan Cole is noting a growing darkness in Grand Ayatollah Sistani's comments on the fighting - comments that could portend extremely serious consequences in Iraq in the future.