February 09, 2008

Feb. 9th: Obama Goes 4-0 and a Bad Day for John McCain

So Sen. Obama won all of today's contests. He won by huge margins in Washington, Nebraska and the Virgin Islands, and with 78% in, he's leading in Louisiana 54-39.

On the Republican side? Mike Huckabee trounced John McCain in Kansas, and with 78% of the vote counted in Louisiana Huckabee is leading there too - 45-41. It's too early to call the Washington caucuses, but with 37% in, Huckabee is leading there too. He's got 27% to 23% for McCain and 21% for Ron Paul. Now sure, Louisiana would seem to be a good state for Huckabee, and both Kansas and Washington have far-right Republican activists (Washington is one of the 4 states Pat Robertson won in 1988), and sure John McCain is still going to be the Republican nominee. But it doesn't look good for him to be doing this poorly, right after he seems to wrap up the nomination by his top opponent dropping out.

Posted by armand at February 9, 2008 11:05 PM | TrackBack | Posted to Politics


All I have to say is "what the hell is going on in Washington?" Ron Paul over 20%?!

Posted by: binky at February 10, 2008 10:54 AM | PERMALINK

Well what I wonder with that is where's the rest of the Washington result? Think anything is fishy about McCain sitting on a 2 point lead there while the Sunday papers and Sunday talk shows are going on? Should he eventually not win those caucuses it'll be more fodder for the McCain-being-pushed-down-the-throat-of-conservatives crowd.

Posted by: Armand at February 10, 2008 11:10 AM | PERMALINK

This is also related to our discussion on the big pimpin' thread, but it talks about performance in caucuses versus primaries, and the gender angle as to why Obama and Clinton may perform differently.

Posted by: binky at February 10, 2008 05:48 PM | PERMALINK

Well that could matter to a degree, sure. But whether it's Obama winning 70-30 or 60-40 Obama's wins in many of the caucuses have been so overwhelming that I don't know that this would have the kind of effect that'd swing the results. Though I suppose when aggregated over all the states in this very close race ...

And speaking of Obama's strength in caucuses - he's up 57-42 in Maine with 59% in. Which honestly I'm really surprised by. I figured Maine'd be like NH, only possibly a little less friendly to Obama.

Posted by: Armand at February 10, 2008 06:03 PM | PERMALINK

I think 70/30 looks a lot worse than 60/40.

Posted by: binky at February 10, 2008 07:22 PM | PERMALINK

Eh, maybe a tiny bit - but both are pretty much landslides.

I'm really impressed he won Maine like he did. I figured she'd win there. While the caucus system might not reflect the exact will of the people (well, it surely doesn't) I think they are interesting in terms of what it says about the strength and skill of a campaign organization. And to win Maine so easily - well the Obama campaign did some great work.

Posted by: Armand at February 10, 2008 07:49 PM | PERMALINK

I think 60/40 looks plenty bad, given that the state party apparatus was in Full Hillary mode.

Posted by: jacflash at February 10, 2008 08:40 PM | PERMALINK

Shaking up her staff. All but conceding D.C. and Virginia. Behind Obama in pledged delegates, with no guarantee that even the superdelegates who have committed to her won't change their minds if a strong popular current carries Obama into a clear lead, not to mention the lion's share of unpledged delegates who are waiting to see the writing on the wall. Hillary's got problems.

Posted by: moon at February 10, 2008 11:32 PM | PERMALINK
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